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Flood MEMORY: Multi-Event Modelling Of Risk & recoverY

Flood MEMORY：风险的多事件建模

基本信息

批准号：
EP/K013513/1
负责人：
Chris Kilsby
金额：
$ 225.2万
依托单位：
Newcastle University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2013 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FK013513%2F1
关键词：
Flood MEMORY Multi Event Modelling

项目摘要

The project will look at the most critical flood scenarios caused by sequences or clusters of extreme weather events striking vulnerable systems of flood defences, urban areas, communities and businesses. The project will analyse and simulate situations where a second flood may strike before coastal or river defences have been reinstated after damage, or householders and small businesses are in a vulnerable condition recovering from the first flood. By examining such events and identifying the worst case scenarios, we hope our findings will lead to enhanced flood resilience and better allocation of resources for protection and recovery. Ultimately the processes developed could be used worldwide. Changes in the frequency and severity of flooding are under close scrutiny due to increased storminess in projections of future climate. The project will look at observed records of storms and try to understand how clustering may obscure or even exacerbate any climate induced changes. This is crucial for designing flood defence schemes now, which will operate for decades into the future, as current methods of estimating risk in a stationary climate do not fully account for the observed clustering of flood events and possible changes in variability. Other aspects of the project will look at how coasts (beaches, dunes and engineered defences) and rivers behave during storms. Of particular interest is the effect of previous storms and floods moving sediment (i.e. shingle, sand and river bed material) so that the beach or river is in a different (perhaps weaker) condition when a second flood event arrives. The movement of sediment is difficult to predict as mostly happens during storms, so our knowledge of these processes is currently lacking.

该项目将研究由一系列或一系列极端天气事件袭击脆弱的防洪系统、城市地区、社区和企业所造成的最严重的洪水情景。该项目将分析和模拟在沿海或河流防御设施受损后尚未恢复之前可能发生第二次洪水的情况，或房主和小企业处于从第一次洪水中恢复的脆弱状态。通过研究这些事件并确定最坏的情况，我们希望我们的研究结果将导致提高洪水恢复能力，并更好地分配资源用于保护和恢复。最终，开发的过程可以在世界范围内使用。由于对未来气候的预测中风暴的增加，洪水的频率和严重程度的变化正在受到密切关注。该项目将研究观测到的风暴记录，并试图了解集群如何掩盖甚至加剧任何气候引起的变化。这对于现在设计防洪计划至关重要，这些计划将在未来几十年内运行，因为目前估计稳定气候中风险的方法无法完全考虑到观察到的洪水事件聚集和变异性可能的变化。该项目的其他方面将着眼于海岸（海滩，沙丘和工程防御）和河流在风暴期间的行为。特别令人感兴趣的是以前的风暴和洪水移动沉积物（即卵石、沙子和河床物质）的影响，因此当第二次洪水事件到来时，海滩或河流处于不同的（可能更弱的）状态。沉积物的运动很难预测，因为大多数情况下发生在风暴期间，因此我们目前缺乏对这些过程的了解。