The Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics: National Capability Science Programme April 2019 - March 2021

COMET提供地球观测（EO）研究，帮助我们了解火山和构造过程和危害。我们结合使用地球观测数据、地面测量和地球物理模型，重点关注三个关键领域：-地球观测数据和服务;-构造和地震灾害;和-岩浆活动和火山灾害。这些活动支持COMET内部和更广泛社区的世界领先研究，并帮助社会应对自然灾害。我们的研究是长期的，因为开发成功的EO方法可能需要几十年，而我们观察的自然现象的持续时间超过了单笔研究赠款。例如，我们在使用和开发用于测量地面变形的卫星雷达干涉测量（干涉合成孔径雷达）方面进行了20多年的研究，使我们能够开发一种向科学界提供变形数据的实时服务。通过将这些数据与我们的专业知识相结合，在地震或火山危机期间，我们可以为政府，科学界和当地合作伙伴提供可靠，快速的建议。这种协作工作还带来了对地震或火山过程的新见解，并帮助我们开发下一代技术，数据集和服务。我们与世界各地地球仪合作伙伴的长期合作也使我们处于独特的地位，可以与发展中国家（许多在发援会名单上）建立伙伴关系，并在发展中国家之间建立伙伴关系，帮助识别和应对自然灾害。破坏性地震突然发生，没有预警，但它们的空间分布不是随机的。为了在减少地震影响方面取得进展，我们需要了解地震危险在空间和时间上的分布。这通常依赖于以前地震的目录，但这种方法在地震不频繁的地区是不准确的，包括大部分大陆构造带，COMET科学家使用地壳应变测量来指示未来的地震危险。几十年来，对断层周围地球表面细微翘曲的测量可以用来估计应力积累的速率。在较长的时间尺度上，断层运动改变了景观地貌，结合实地研究和第四纪测年，可以用来估计构造活动的速率，即使是太慢而无法通过卫星测量确定的断层。COMET的跨学科方法正在改进这些测量，方法是使用卫星对短期应变率进行更高分辨率、更准确的测量，改进用于地貌学的地表高程数据，在关键地区进行实地研究，改进将这些观测与过去和未来的地震危险联系起来的物理模型。然而，由于超过1400座火山位于海平面以上，许多位于发展中国家或偏远地区，全球地面监测不可行，目前只有20%的火山得到充分监测。但是，数量不断增加的卫星数据为火山和岩浆系统提供了新的见解，彗星已经发展了利用卫星数据定期短间隔观察全球范围内火山变形和脱气的能力，同时还开发了变形建模工具，结合一系列技术。需要进一步开展工作，自动生成我们的关键数据集，并与主要的国家和国际伙伴。然而，我们为英国和海外当局和决策者提供快速建议的记录，以及我们对长期危害战略的影响，例如在伊朗，哈萨克斯坦和埃塞俄比亚，突出了我们在这一领域工作的影响，并为英国科学带来了相当大的声誉。

COMET delivers Earth Observation (EO) research that helps us to understand volcanic and tectonic processes and hazards. We use a combination of EO data, ground-based measurements, and geophysical models focusing on three key areas:- Earth Observation Data and Services;- Tectonics and Seismic Hazard; and - Magmatism and Volcanic Hazard.These activities support world-leading research within COMET and in the wider community, as well as helping society to respond to natural disasters.Our research is long-term because developing successful EO methods can take decades, whilst we observe natural phenomena whose durations outlast single research grants. For example, our 20+ years of research using and developing satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) for measuring ground deformation has enabled us to develop a real-timeservice delivering deformation data to the scientific community. By combining this data with our expertise, during a seismic or volcanic crisis, we can provide reliable, rapid advice to government, the scientific community, and local partners. This collaborative work also leads to new insights into earthquake or volcanic processes, and helps us to develop hte next generation of technologies, datasets and services. Our long-term collaborations with partners across the globe worldwide also make us uniquely placed to develop partnerships with and between developing nations (many on the DAC list) that help to identify and address natural hazard. Damaging earthquakes strike suddenly and without warning, but their spatial distribution is not random. To make progress in reducing the impact of earthquakes, we need to understand the distribution of seismic hazard in space and time. This has often relied on catalogues of previous earthquakes, but this approach is inaccurate in regions, including much of the continental tectonic belts, where earthquakes are infrequent.COMET scientists instead use crustal strain measurements to indicate future earthquake hazard. Over tens of years, measurements of the subtle warping of Earth's surface around faults can be used to the estimate rates at which stresses are accumulating. On a longer timescale, fault movements modify the landscape - geomorphology combined with field studies and Quaternary dating can be used to estimate rates of tectonic activity, even for faults that are too slow to be identified by satellite measurements. COMET's interdisciplinary approach is improving these measurements by using higher-resolution, more accurate measurements of short-term strain rates from satellites, improved surface elevation data for geomorphology, field studies in key areas, and improved physical models that link these observations to past and future seismic hazard.In contrast to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions often enter periods of unrest that may or may not result in eruption. However, with >1400 volcanoes above sea level, manyin developing countries or remote regions, global ground-based monitoring is not feasible and at the moment only 20% of these volcanoes are monitored adequately. But ever- increasing quantities of satellite data are providing new insights into volcanic and magmatic systems, and COMET has developed the capability to observe volcanic deformation and degassing on global scales at regular short intervals using satellite data, alongside tools for modelling deformation, combining a range of techniques.Further work is required on automatic production of our key data sets and on developing response protocols in collaboration with key national and international partners. However, our record of providing rapid advice to UK and overseas authorities and decision makers, and our influence on long-term hazard strategies, for example in Iran, Kazakhstan and Ethiopia, highlight the impact of our work in this area and represents a considerable reputational benefit to UK science.