Wider Impacts of Subpolar nortH atlantic decadal variaBility on the OceaN and atmospherE' (WISHBONE)

北大西洋亚极区（SNA）是北大西洋北纬45-65°之间的区域，是一个高度变化的区域。这里的表面温度和表面盐度在一系列时间尺度上都有变化，但这些变化主要是在年代际或更长时间尺度上的大而缓慢的变化。这种年代际变率似乎构成了一个更大的气候模式——大西洋多年代际变率的关键组成部分，它与一系列重要的气候影响有关，包括北非和南亚季风的降雨、欧洲和北美的洪水和干旱，以及飓风的数量。SNA也是地球上十年时间尺度上最可预测的地方之一，这表明有可能改进对未来区域气候和高影响天气年份的预测。然而，SNA中这种变异性的起源以及控制其影响的过程还远未完全了解。有重要的证据表明，从亚极地北大西洋到大气的异常热损失可以在整个北大西洋盆地的海洋和大气中引发一连串的变化。例如，SNA的变化可以改变向南的海洋环流强度，影响北大西洋热量和淡水向北输送，进而影响整个北大西洋盆地并进入北极的上层海洋温度和盐度。北大西洋亚极地表面温度的变化也被认为影响了夏季和冬季的大气环流，即风的模式。然而，观测记录非常短，因此在理解因果关系方面存在重大问题，并且在当前气候模式中对许多重要过程的表现程度方面存在相当大的不确定性。WISHBONE将利用新的先进气候模拟和预报系统，在了解北大西洋亚极地对北大西洋盆地的影响方面取得进展。它还将测试一些特定的假设，这些假设与了解北大西洋亚极地的热量损失在驱动整个盆地变化中的特定作用有关，包括地面异常在驱动风型方面的作用。WISHBONE是英国雷丁大学国家大气科学中心、南安普顿国家海洋学中心、牛津大学和南安普顿大学，以及美国国家大气研究中心的合作项目

The Subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), which is the region of the Atlantic Ocean between 45-65N latitude, is a highly variable region. Surface temperatures and surface salinity here have varied on a range of time-scales, but the changes are dominated by large and slow changes on decadal or longer timescales. This decadal timescale variability appears to form a key component of a larger climate mode, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, which has been linked to a broad range of important climate impacts, including rainfall in the North African and south Asian monsoons, floods and droughts over Europe and North America, and the number of hurricanes. The SNA is also one of the most predictable places on Earth at decadal timescales, which suggests the potential for improved predictions of regional climate and high-impact weather years ahead. However, the origins of this variability in the SNA, and the processes controlling its impacts, are far from fully understood. There is significant evidence to suggest that anomalous heat loss from the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean to the atmosphere can instigate a cascade of changes across the North Atlantic basin in both the ocean and atmosphere. For example, changes in the SNA can change the strength of the ocean circulation to the south, affect the northward transport of heat and freshwater in the North Atlantic, and subsequently affect the upper ocean temperatures and salinity across the whole North Atlantic basin, and into the Arctic. Changes in the subpolar North Atlantic surface temperature are also thought to affect the atmospheric circulation - i.e. wind patterns - in both summer and winter. However, observational records are very short, and so there are significant problems with understanding causality, and considerable uncertainty about how well many of the important processes are represented in current climate models. WISHBONE will make use of new advanced climate simulations and forecast systems to make progress in understanding the impact of the subpolar North Atlantic on the wider North Atlantic basin. It will also test specific hypotheses related to understanding the specific role of heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic in driving changes throughout the basin including the role of surface anomalies in driving wind patterns. WISHBONE is a collaboration between the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, The National Oceanography Centre Southampton, The University of Oxford, and The University of Southampton from the U.K., and The National Center for Atmospheric Research, from the U.S.