Mosquitoes populations modelling for early warning system and rapid response public by health authorities correlating climate, weather and spatial-tem

由于最近的气候变化，蚊子传播的疾病（如寨卡病毒、登革热）不仅在非洲和拉丁美洲的亚热带地区流行，而且在世界其他地区也流行。该项目将结合公共卫生、移动技术和气候建模来评估环境变化对巴西东北部为蚊子提供繁殖栖息地的水的影响。我们的目标是通过部署尖端的移动和物联网（IoT）技术，利用新获得的气候、天气、蚊子监测、水和卫生以及社会经济数据等多个数据源，开发一系列时空模型来预测蚊子种群的负担。这项技术将包括使用移动监测应用程序，利用游戏化和与当地利益相关者共同开发的公民科学技术来报告巴西水滋生点的位置。我们将开发一个数据驱动的早期预警系统，以预测蚊子孳生点的发生和数量变化。这一实时系统将提醒公共卫生和环境当局动员社区参与，以预防和快速应对病媒暴发。我们还将为公众和社区利益相关者编写教育内容，以提高对蚊子滋生栖息地和水管理的认识。我们将与公共卫生利益攸关方（世卫组织和累西腓市政厅）共同制定社区参与战略和循证政策，以改善死水的管理和处理。最重要的是，在蚊子传播疾病流行的巴西东北部省份现有合作伙伴关系的基础上，我们将与累西腓、奥林达和坎皮纳格兰德的学者和当地利益相关者合作伙伴合作，并拥有独特的蚊子监测数据，通过移动应用程序和物联网设备实时校准我们的预测模型。获取实时数据集不仅将为校准预测建模结果提供一种独特的方法？但也将使我们能够在当局标准的日常运作期间与当局一起评估整个预警决策支持仪表板系统，以确保对病媒监测和公共卫生政策产生突出的现实影响。一个研究项目有机会在项目时间框架内验证研究成果，同时将成果直接传达给巴西、土耳其和其他病媒传播疾病即将流行的国家的公共卫生当局、决策者、世卫组织和利益攸关方，这绝对是独一无二的。

As a result of the recent climate changes, mosquito-borne diseases (like Zika, dengue) are becoming endemic not only in sub-tropical regions of Africa and Latin America but in other parts of the world. This project will combine public health, mobile technology and climate modelling to evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on water providing breeding habitats for mosquitoes in Northeast Brazil. We aim to develop a series of spatial-temporal models to predict the burden of mosquito populations by deploying cutting-edge mobile and internet of things (IoT) technology leveraging multiple data sources from newly acquired climate, weather, mosquito surveillance, water and sanitation and socioeconomic data. This technology will include the use of mobile surveillance apps using gamification and citizen science technology co-developed with local stakeholders for reporting locations of water breeding points in Brazil. We will develop a data-driven early warning system to predict changes in occurrence and abundance of mosquito breeding points. This real-time system will alert public health and environmental authorities to mobilise community engagement for the prevention and rapid response to vector outbreaks. We will also develop educational content for public and community stakeholders to increase awareness of mosquito breeding habitats and water management. With public health stakeholders (WHO and Recife City Hall), we will co-develop community engagement strategies and evidence-based policies to improve standing water management and treatment. Most importantly, building on existing partnerships in the provinces in Northeast Brazil, where mosquito-borne diseases are endemic, we will work with academics and local stakeholder partners from Recife, Olinda and Campina Grande, and have a unique access to mosquito surveillance data to calibrate our predictive models in real-time via mobile app and IoT devices. Access to real-time datasets will not only provide a unique method for calibrating the predictive modelling results ? but also will put us in a position to evaluate the entire early-warning decision-support dashboard system with the authorities during their standard daily operations to ensure outstanding real-world impact on vector surveillance and public health policy. It is absolutely unique for a research project to have the opportunity to validate the research in the timeframe of the project while directly translating the results to public health authorities, policy makers, WHO, and stakeholders in Brazil, Turkey and other countries where vector-borne disease are soon to become endemic.