MesoS2D: Mesospheric sub-seasonal to decadal predictability

为了准确地预测空间天气和气候变率对整个大气的影响，我们需要一个准确的整个大气的表示。中间层（~50-95 km高度）是大气中最不为人所知的区域，它是两个域（气候域和空间天气域）之间的关键边界，这在试图模拟和预测整个大气条件时提出了一个问题。目前对中间层的预报水平并不比气候学高。从历史上看，对这一地区的观察很少，无法帮助我们描述它的特征。然而，在过去十年左右的时间里，观测的数量显著增加，包括多个中大气观测卫星任务。我们计划利用这个中期大气观测的黄金时代，并结合世界上最复杂的整个大气模型之一，量化中间层的变化和驱动因素。中间层影响并受原位效应和外部效应的影响，例如大气波和潮汐（向上）和空间天气效应（向下）。中间层与电离层的下缘以及其他大气区域紧密耦合，因此一部分的变化会影响到其他部分。为了在整个大气作为一个耦合系统的模拟方面取得进展，我们需要对变率的驱动因素有一个可靠的科学理解。对于气候模式，我们在两周和几十年的尺度上有很好的可预测性。然而，关键的是，我们还不能在中间层中做到这一点。我们的目标是集中精力了解中间层的亚季节到年代际变化，作为改进模式预测的途径。我们将利用高度仪器化的斯堪的纳维亚地区，结合卫星数据，确定中间层/下层电离层的变率及其驱动因素在亚季节到年代际尺度上的变化。我们将是第一批使用价值5000万英镑的高分辨率仪器（EISCAT 3D）的。这将是世界上最复杂的电离层雷达，它将允许对中层大气变化进行前所未有的小规模测量。结合特殊的高分辨率全大气模式模拟，我们将确定该大气区域的驱动因素和变率，并沿着提高中间层在亚季节至年代际时间尺度上的可预测性的道路迈出第一步。

In order to accurately predict impacts of space weather and climate variability on the whole atmosphere we need an accurate representation of the whole atmosphere. The mesosphere (~50-95 km altitude) is the most poorly understoodregion of the atmosphere, it is the critical boundary between two domains (the climate domain and the space weatherdomain) and this presents a problem when trying to model and prediction conditions in the whole atmosphere. Currently the level of prediction in the mesosphere is no better than climatology. Historically there have been few observations of this region to help us characterise it. However, in the past decade or so the number of observations has increased markedly, including multiple middle atmosphere observing satellite missions. We plan to take advantage of this golden age of middle atmosphere observations and together with one of the world most sophisticated whole atmosphere models to quantify the variability and drivers of the mesosphere.The mesosphere influences, and is influenced by, in-situ and external effects such as atmospheric waves and tides(upward) and space weather effects (downward). The mesosphere is strongly coupled to the lower edge of the ionosphere, as well as the other atmospheric regions, so changes in one part can impact on others. In order to make progress in modelling the whole atmosphere as a coupled system we need to have a sound scientific understanding of the drivers of variability. For climate models we have a good level of predictability for ~2 weeks and one the ~decades scale. However, critically we cannot do this in the mesosphere yet. We aim to focus our efforts on understanding variability on the subseasonal to decadal variations in the mesosphere as a pathway to improving model predictions.We will use the highly instrumented region of Scandinavia, in conjunction with satellite data, to determine the variability of the mesosphere/lower ionosphere and its drivers over a sub seasonal to decadal scale. We will be among the first to use a new, ~£50 million, high-resolution instrument (EISCAT 3D). This will be the world's most sophisticated ionospheric radar which will allow unprecedented small scale measurements of variations in the middle atmosphere. In conjunction with special high-resolution whole atmosphere model simulations, we will determine the drivers and variability of this atmospheric region and provide a first step along the road of improving predictability of the mesosphere at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales.