Knowledge Exchange Fellowship: Forecast-based Action for Conservation (ForCon)

野生动物受到气候变化的威胁。气候变化影响野生动物的一种方式是增加极端天气事件的频率，包括干旱，热浪和风暴。这些天气事件可能导致野生动物的损失，这对我们星球的正常运作是有害的。幸运的是，许多极端天气事件现在可以通过天气预报来预测。天气预报可以为即将发生的极端事件提供早期预警，使人们能够在事件发生之前做好准备。例如：如果天气预报显示飓风即将来临，房主可以通过关闭窗户和撤离来为飓风做准备。在飓风来袭前采取的这些措施将减少对建筑物的破坏，并将拯救生命。同样，可以采取准备措施来减轻极端天气对野生动物的影响，但目前，野生动物保护组织并不经常使用这种方法。为什么？为什么？这可能是因为天气预报不能直接预测野生动物的损失。相反，在可用的天气预报和野生动物保护组织实际需要的信息之间存在差距。更经常地使用天气预报可以使保护组织更好地为极端天气做好准备，并最终保护野生动物。该奖学金旨在解决野生动物保护中天气预报使用不足的问题。具体而言，该奖学金将侧重于一个特定的保护问题，人象冲突（HEC）。当大象吃农民的庄稼或在分享水源时杀死牛或人时，就会发生HEC。降雨量少导致干旱，增加了HEC的发生。该基金会与天气预报员和环保组织紧密合作，将天气预报信息加以调整，使其适合于试图预防HEC的环保组织。通过这种方式，对低降雨量和干旱的预测可以提供HEC的早期预警。该研究金还将寻求红十字会的专家指导，红十字会经常利用天气预报来规划其人道主义活动。红十字会协助制订计划，根据天气预报采取保育行动。该研究计划会测试如何利用天气预报管理港灯，并会向其他致力防止港灯的保育组织汇报结果。研究金伙伴还将帮助编写报告，与国际理事保护机构分享。通过这种方式，希望可以分享在奖学金期间学到的经验教训，以便其他保护组织可以使用预测来保护世界各地的其他野生动物免受极端天气的影响。

Wildlife is threatened by climate change. One way in which climate change affects wildlife is by increasing the frequency of extreme weather events including drought, heat waves and storms. These weather events can cause wildlife losses which are detrimental for the proper functioning of our planet.Fortunately, many extreme weather events can now be predicted by weather forecasts. Weather forecasts can provide early warnings of upcoming extreme events, allowing people to prepare before the event occurs. An example might be: if a weather forecast identifies an incoming hurricane, homeowners can prepare for the hurricane by boarding windows and evacuating. These actions, taken before the hurricane hits, will reduce damage to buildings and will save lives.In a similar way, preparatory actions can be taken to lessen the effects of extreme weather on wildlife, but currently, this approach is not routinely used by wildlife conservation organisations. Why? It is probably because weather forecasts do not directly predict wildlife losses. Rather, there is a gap between the weather forecasts available and the information wildlife conservation organisations actually need. More regular use of weather forecasts could allow conservation organisations to better prepare for extreme weather and ultimately protect wildlife. This fellowship aims to address the under use of weather forecasts in wildlife conservation. Specifically, the fellowship will focus on a particular conservation issue, human-elephant conflict (HEC). HEC occurs when elephants eat farmers' crops or kill cattle or people when sharing water sources. Low rainfall, leading to drought, increases the occurrence of HEC. Working closely with weather forecasters and conservation organisations, the fellowship will adapt weather forecast information so that it is suitable for conservation organisations trying to prevent HEC. In this way, forecasts for low rainfall and drought can provide early warnings of HEC. The fellowship will also seek expert guidance from the Red Cross, who regularly use weather forecasts to plan their humanitarian activities. The Red Cross will help to develop plans outlining conservation actions to be taken based on weather forecasts.The fellowship will test the use of forecasts for managing HEC and will report the findings to other conservation organisations working to prevent HEC. Fellowship partners will also help in the development of reports to share with international governing conservation bodies. In this way, it is hoped that lessons learnt during the fellowship can be shared so that forecasts can be used by other conservation organisations to protect other wildlife around the world from extreme weather.