Is phenology evolving in response to climate change?

在气候变化的影响下，自然界的许多方面正在发生变化。其中最值得注意的一点是，自然事件--物候学--的时间正在发生变化，许多物种的活动每年都变得更早。他们是怎么做到的？有两个主要机制：一个人一生中对环境的短期反应，称为可塑性，以及由于自然选择而产生的世代遗传变化，即进化。每一种机制所发挥的作用都很重要，因为它们能够实现不同的反应速度，并具有不同的持续变化潜力。例如，可塑性可以产生非常快的反应，但物种的可塑性是有限的，而遗传变化较慢，但可能会随着时间的推移而持续。到目前为止，对物候变化的最详细研究集中在鸟类的产卵日期上，这些日期必须有充足的食物供应才能养育雏鸟，而且在春季有一个食物丰富的尖锐高峰。这些研究得出的结论是，这些鸟对这样的温度信号做出了可塑性的反应，这表明很快就会有食物，而几乎没有证据表明进化发生了变化。但许多有着不同生活史的物种，尤其是储存营养并有妊娠期的哺乳动物，正在像鸟类一样迅速地改变物候。由于它们不能根据出生时的条件微调出生日期，进化很可能是这些物种的一种更重要的机制。在朗姆酒上单独监测的马鹿，随着时间的推移，物候的几个方面已经提前了。例如，自1980年以来，产犊日期提前了14天，有初步证据表明，这是由于基因变化和可塑性的共同作用。在这项研究中，我们将通过(1)测量对一系列天气和生物驱动因素(如食物可获得性和寄生虫)的可塑性；(2)测量自然选择并检验有利于较早物候的选择随着气温变暖而加强的假设；(3)预测和测量进化(我们指的是遗传)对选择的反应；(4)预测物候变化对种群的影响。

Many aspects of the natural world are changing under climate change. One of the most notable is that the timing of natural events - phenology - is changing, with many species becoming earlier in their activities each year. How are they doing this? There two main mechanisms: short-term reactions to circumstances within the lifetime of an individual, known as plasticity, and genetic change across generations due to natural selection, i.e. evolution. The role played by each of these mechanisms is important, because they enable different rates of response and have different potential for sustained change. For example plasticity can generate a very fast response, but species have limits to plasticity, whereas genetic change is slower but may be sustained over time. To date the most detailed studies of phenology change focus on egg lay dates in birds which must have an ample food supply to raise chicks and in which there is a sharp spring peak in food abundance. These studies conclude that the birds respond plastically to cues such a temperature that indicate there will soon be food, while there is little evidence of evolutionary change. But many species with different kinds of life history, most notably mammals that store nutrition and have a gestation period, are changing phenology just as fast as birds. Since they cannot fine-tune birth dates to conditions at birth, evolution is likely to be a more important mechanism in these species. In the individually-monitored red deer on Rum, several aspects of phenology have got earlier over time. For example calving date has got earlier by 14 days since 1980, and there is pilot evidence this is due to a combination of genetic change and plasticity. In this study we will investigate eights phenology traits by (1) Measuring plasticity to a range of weather and biological drivers (such as food availability and parasites); (2) Measuring natural selection and testing the hypothesis that selection favouring earlier phenology has strengthened with warming temperatures; (3) Predicting and measuring the evolutionary (by which we mean genetic) response to selection; (4) Predicting the population implications of changing phenology.