A 3D agent-based model for simulating urban redevelopment at the building scale

EPSRC：Richard Burke：EP/S 023577/1多伦多目前是北美发展最快的三大中心城市之一。2006-2016年间，多伦多的人口增长了9%，到2030年，人口预计将再增长13%。这种指数增长主要归因于高水平的移民，移民占多伦多人口的50%以下。多伦多的人口增长和有限的土地供应造成了真实的房地产泡沫：由于需求超过供应，房地产价格大幅上涨。为了确保它仍然是一个宜居的城市，多伦多必须专注于重建，再城市化和再生在现有的城市结构是难以改变的。应优先考虑现有城市的重建，以解决这场真实的房地产危机，并确保它仍然是一个有弹性的城市。探索多伦多城市再开发潜力的最佳方法是在模拟环境中评估当前的城市规划法规、真实的地产市场和城市形态，以评估其寿命和鲁棒性。基于代理的模型是评估多伦多未来城市再开发潜力的理想方法，因为它们提供了一个合适的环境来复制城市再开发过程。这种建模技术提供了一个概念和理论框架，通过自我活动和各种基于规则的代理之间的相互作用来模拟空间动态过程。基于主体的模型非常动态，已应用于广泛的研究主题，例如模拟行人运动以模拟COVID-19传播和未来城市扩展动态。基于代理的模型中代理的定义是无限的，可以代表重建过程中的关键参与者，例如政府，居民和开发商利益相关者以及城市重建中重要的空间实体，例如地块，道路和建筑物。基于代理的模型非常适合模拟城市再开发，因为它们可以捕捉城市规划法规，真实的房地产市场和城市形态之间的复杂关系，这些都是准确复制城市再开发过程所需的重要因素。因此，本项目的目的是探索多伦多的规划法规，真实的房地产市场和城市形态如何影响城市内再开发的可行性。预期成果将通过创建3D空间决策支持系统作为关键交付成果之一，为社会和行业做出贡献。这一工具将帮助利益攸关方了解当前城市监管政策的可行性，为未来的城市再开发项目提供最合适的地点，并帮助改善整体城市管理。此外，3D可视化的实施有利于城市规划师理解和解释垂直高度限制如何影响重建的机会。总体而言，该项目的方法将突出基于代理的模型是如何解决加拿大真实的房地产危机的宝贵工具，并有助于城市重建举措，以确保一个功能更强的城市。这一方法将提供一个动态框架，可随时适用于面临类似真实的房地产挑战的其他加拿大城市，并最终提高加拿大制定更可持续的城市规划战略和条例的能力。

EPSRC : Richard Burke : EP/S023577/1 Toronto is currently one of the top three fastest growing central cities in North America. Between 2006-2016, Toronto's population grew by 9% and by 2030 the population is projected to grow by an additional 13%. This exponential growth is primarily attributed to high levels of immigration, with immigrants constituting just under 50% of Toronto's population. Toronto's population growth and limited land availability has caused a real estate bubble: a significant rise in property prices due to demand outpacing supply. To ensure it remains a liveable city, Toronto must focus on rebuilding, reurbanising and regenerating within an existing urban structure that is difficult to change. Redevelopment of the existing city should be prioritised to address this real estate crisis and ensure it remains a resilient city. The most appropriate way to explore Toronto's potential for redevelopment is to evaluate current city planning regulations, the real estate market and urban form in a simulation environment to evaluate their longevity and robustness.Agent-based models are ideal to evaluate Toronto's future urban redevelopment potential as they provide a suitable environment to replicate the urban redevelopment process. This modelling technique provides a conceptual and theoretical framework to simulate spatially dynamic processes through self-activities and interactions between various rule-based agents. Agent-based models are very dynamic and have been applied to a wide range of research topics, such as modelling pedestrian movements for simulating COVID-19 transmission and future urban expansion dynamics. The definition of agents in an agent-based models are unlimited and can represent key actors in the redevelopment process, such as government, resident, and developer stakeholders as well as spatial entities important in urban redevelopment such as land parcels, roads, and buildings. Agent-based models are very well suited to simulate urban redevelopment as they can capture the complex relationships between urban planning regulations, the real estate market and urban form which are important factors needed to accurately replicate the urban redevelopment process.Therefore, the aim of this project is to explore how Toronto's planning regulations, real estate market and urban form influence the feasibility of redevelopment within the city. The expected results will contribute to society and industry through the creation of 3D spatial decision support system as one of the key deliverables. This tool will help inform stakeholders of the viability of current urban regulation policies, provide insight into the most suitable locations for future urban redevelopment projects and help improve overall city management. In addition, the implementation of 3D visualisation is beneficial for urban planners to understand and interpret how vertical height limitations can impact the opportunity of redevelopment. Overall, the approach of this project will highlight how agent-based models are an invaluable tool to address the Canadian real estate crisis and can contribute to urban redevelopment initiatives to ensure a more functional city. This approach will provide a dynamic framework which can be readily applied to other Canadian cities experiencing similar real estate challenges and will ultimately improve Canada's capability to develop more sustainable urban planning strategies and regulations.