Population-level impact and geographic spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 outbreak in gannets

对于一些不幸的观察者来说，2022年夏天将因高致病性禽流感（HPAI）的爆发而被铭记，这场流感导致北大西洋殖民地数千只海鸟死亡和痛苦。这些具有国际重要性的人口已经受到人为变化的巨大压力;因此，我们不仅迫切需要知道这次疫情的影响，而且还需要知道它可能如何传播。我们建议使用详细的个人为基础的数据来估计的影响，高致病性禽流感对一个物种，特别是在最近的爆发，北方塘鹅严重影响。使用捕获标记再捕获技术，我们将估计成人的生存概率，一个更强大的措施比传统的人口普查或死亡鸟类的计数，在两个大的英国殖民地-一个已受到严重影响的HPAI（巴斯岩石在苏格兰），而其他仍然是无病毒（威尔士的Grassholm）。我们亦会利用鸟载全球定位系统装置，透过移动的电话网络传送数据，以追踪各殖民地之间的移动情况。这将提供关于种群的哪些组成部分最有可能传播病毒的重要信息（通过比较通常忠诚的繁殖者与更流动的未成熟鸟类），并为我们在东北大西洋的塘鹅集合种群模型提供信息。这个模型将使我们能够预测的影响，高致病性禽流感几乎在整个塘鹅繁殖范围内，在现实的情况下，相互连接的殖民地。最后，我们将能够确定特别容易受到病毒爆发和其他人为压力因素（如海上风电场建设）综合影响的人群。

For some unfortunate observers, the summer of 2022 will be remembered for an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), which led to the death and suffering of many thousands of seabirds at colonies across the North Atlantic. These internationally important populations were already under intense pressure from anthropogenic change; therefore, we need to know urgently not only the impact of this outbreak but how it might be spreading. We propose using detailed individual-based data to estimate the impact of HPAI on a species particularly severely impacted in the recent outbreak, the northern gannet. Using capture-mark-recapture techniques we will estimate adult survival probability, a much more robust measure than conventional population censuses or counts of dead birds, at two large UK colonies - one which has been severely impacted by HPAI (Bass rock in Scotland), while the other remains virus free (Grassholm in Wales). We will also track inter-colony movements using bird-borne GPS devices which transmit via the mobile phone network. This will provide vital information on which components of the population are most likely to spread the virus (by comparing the usually colony-faithful breeders with the more itinerant immature birds) and inform our metapopulation model for gannets in the northeast Atlantic. This model will enable us to predict the impact of HPAI across virtually the entire gannet breeding range, under the realistic scenario of inter-connected colonies. Finally, we will be able to identify populations particularly vulnerable to the combined effects of viral outbreaks and other anthropogenic stressors such as the construction of offshore wind farms.