Monitoring, Modelling And Mitigating Pollution Impacts In A Changing World: Science And Tools For Tomorrow's Rivers

几个世纪以来，人类活动通过改变物理、生物和化学驱动力和压力的来源和组合，对我们的河流产生了影响。然而，我们对它们对生态系统的影响的理解受到了限制，因为我们孤立地看待每一种影响，而不考虑它们的综合影响。近几十年来，一些受管制的污染物（如氮和磷）已大幅减少。然而，即使有了这些改善，我们也目睹了河流水质的下降，以及由此造成的淡水物种和生物群的丧失。我们所看到的情况由于越来越多的不同类型的新出现的令人担忧的污染物（例如药品，农药，非法药物，微塑料等）而变得更加复杂。这意味着我们的淡水物种正在受到令人困惑的污染物鸡尾酒（混合物）组合的挑战，其影响知之甚少。与此同时，气候变化导致的水量变化（洪水更频繁、低流量期更长）和沃茨变暖预计不仅会直接影响淡水生态群落的功能、生理、丰度和生物时序，而且还会分别影响这些混合物的输送和潜在毒性。我们需要考虑的不仅仅是水的途径，还有污染物的再动员和暴露模式的变化，这些都可能放大对生物群的影响（即生物敏感性）。我们的废水系统和合流下水道溢流将这些新出现的污染物从城镇输送到我们的淡水环境中。随着城市化进程的加快、降雨强度及其季节性的变化、不同的集水过程都有可能增加这些新出现的污染物对环境和生活在那里的淡水物种的影响，在水文气候和土地利用变化以及化学品的不同混合物对淡水物种的影响方面，仍然存在着巨大的知识空白。我们的研究将通过创新技术和变革性数据分析来拥抱数字革命，以解决这些差距，从而在我们的知识和理解方面实现一步一步的变化。我们的方法有三个方面。第一个项目将通过严格的调查，提供高时间分辨率的数据，把重点放在一个典型的集水区，包括农村到城市的土地使用。这将使人们对淡水生态系统受到的急性/事件影响有新的认识。其次，我们将使用全国范围的数据集和先进的数据分析工具，调查长期暴露于英国各地的污染物鸡尾酒对水质和生态系统健康的影响。这将为淡水生态系统的慢性/长期影响提供新的认识。第三，我们将把新的证据基础和理解整合到基于风险的概率模型中。该模型将允许探索环境变化、河流质量下降、多种污染物和生态系统影响之间的关系。我们的研究将建立证据基础，以了解不断变化的污染物来源，输送途径以及环境耐受性和生物体可以茁壮成长的边界（即生态系统安全空间）。MOT 4 Rivers将共同为政策、监管和投资的优先事项提供信息，以设计具有成本效益的措施方案，在不断变化的气候条件下促进和加强可持续的淡水生态系统。

For centuries, human activities have impacted our rivers by shifting the sources and combinations of physical, biological and chemical drivers and pressures. However, our understanding of their impact on ecosystems has been limited by viewing each in isolation and not considering their combined effects. Significant reductions in some regulated pollutants (such as nitrogen and phosphorus) have been achieved in recent decades. However, even with these improvements, we are witnessing declining water quality of our rivers, and the resulting loss of freshwater species and biota. The picture that we see is made evermore complex by the increasing numbers of different types of emerging contaminants of concern (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, illicit drugs, micro plastics etc.). This means that our freshwater species are being challenged by a bewildering combination of pollutant cocktails (mixtures) whose effects are poorly understood. At the same time, climate-change driven shifts in water quantity (more frequent floods, longer periods of low flow) and warming waters are expected not only to be influencing the function, physiology, abundance and biological timings of freshwater ecological communities directly, but also the delivery and potential toxicity of these cocktails respectively. It is not simply the water pathway that we need to consider, but also the re-mobilisation of contaminants and the changing patterns of exposure that potentially magnify the effects on biota (i.e. organism sensitivity). Our wastewater systems and combined sewer overflows transport these emerging pollutants from our cities and towns into our freshwater environment. Increasing urbanisation and changes in rainfall intensity and its seasonality, different catchment processes all have the potential to increase inputs of these emerging contaminants to the environment and freshwater species that live there.Substantial knowledge gaps remain around the effects of hydro-climatic and land use changes in combination with the different mixtures of chemicals on freshwater species. Our research will address these gaps by embracing the digital revolution through innovative technologies and transformative data analytics to deliver a step change in our knowledge and understanding. Our approach has three strands. The first will turn a spotlight on a typical catchment encompassing rural to urban land uses through rigorous investigations that will deliver high temporal resolution data. This will provide new understanding of acute/event-based impacts on freshwater ecosystems. Secondly, we will use national scale datasets and cutting edge data analytics tools to investigate the impacts of longer-term exposure to pollutant cocktails across the UK on water quality and ecosystem health. This will provide new understanding of chronic/long term impacts on freshwater ecosystems. Thirdly, we will integrate our new evidence base and understanding into a risk-based probabilistic model. The model will allow the exploration of the relationships between environmental change, declining river quality, multiple pollutants and ecosystem impacts. Our research will develop the evidence base to understand changing pollutant sources, delivery pathways and the environmental tolerances and boundaries within which organisms can thrive and flourish (i.e. the ecosystem safe space). Together, MOT4Rivers will inform priorities for policy, regulation and investment to design cost effective programmes of measures to promote and enhance sustainable freshwater ecosystems under a changing climate.