A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future.

澳大利亚热浪的频率和持续时间都在增加。现有的理论包括自然和人为影响，但具体的热浪驱动因素的相对作用尚不明确。本项目将利用一系列当代气候模式，确定影响热浪表现的人为活动、自然强迫和内部变率的单独和综合作用。利用模式模拟适当的机制联系的能力，将确定未来热浪的似是而非的预测。这将是对热浪变化的首次全面分析，为适应、缓解和防备未来事件提供必要的资源。

The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.