PROBABALISTIC CALIBRATION OF HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS

本研究的目的是探讨水动力学模型的校准和这些模型中固有的不确定性。本研究将发展一个自动化贝氏参数估计架构，用于水动力模型参数的机率估计。本研究旨在为英国洪水建模者、风险评估者和政策制定者提供一个水动力模型的概率校准和不确定性分析框架。这将通过改进洪水预警、准确估计洪水风险和影响以及制定基于风险的洪水管理战略和政策产生社会和经济效益。

The aim of this research is to explore the calibration of hydrodynamic models and the uncertainties inherent in these models. This research will develop an automatic Bayesian parameter estimation framework for probabilistic estimation of hydrodynamic model parameters. This research aims to provide UK flood modellers, risk assessors and policy makers with a probabilistic calibration and uncertainty analysis framework for hydrodynamic models. This will have social and economic benefits from improving flood warnings, accurate estimation of flood risk and impact and developing risk-based flood management strategies and policies.