Adaptive Governance for Energy System dDecentralization: A case study of the National Electricity Market in eastern Australia

政府间政府已经清楚地表明，能源系统正面临着治理方面的一系列挑战。其中一个需要改变的问题似乎来自于减少对化石燃料投资的运动。这一目前快速增长的运动与碳泡沫研究（CTI 2014）密切相关，该研究表明，为了应对气候变化的挑战，并将全球变暖保持在平均几度以下，许多已知的化石燃料储量需要留在地下。报告还显示，与这些储量相关的公司估值可能导致股价迅速下跌，进而引发金融危机，并进一步降低化石燃料需求。英国央行（Carney 2014）和英国金融服务管理局（The Actuary 2015）前首席执行官特纳勋爵（Lord Turner）是两个出人意料的声音，引起了人们对这一问题的关注。如果这一趋势愈演愈烈，人们就会质疑这将对能源系统中一些最大的参与者产生什么影响。与此同时，在一些国家，很明显，撤资的理由与促使消费者成为自我发电者（通常是利用太阳能和储能技术）的经济理由同时起作用。在这种情况下，网络公司（迄今为止依赖于每千瓦时支付作为收入）面临着必须用更少的电力单位支付网络成本的问题。一个解决方案是供应商提高单位电力的网络成本比例，这反过来又使客户转向太阳能和储能更加经济。这就是所谓的“死亡螺旋”。澳大利亚就是这样一个地方，博士案例研究将在澳大利亚进行（一次旅行）。博士学位的重点是得出一些结论，即化石燃料撤资运动作为能源政策的驱动因素有多重要；碳泡沫论对能源政策有多重要；“死亡螺旋”对网络公司来说是罕见的现象，还是他们的司机是网络公司需要了解的东西。所有这些都必须放在能源政策的整体系统视图中，并在有关变革和转型理论的相关理论辩论中进行。

It has become clear from IGov that the energy system is facing a number of challenges to its governance. One of those issues for change appears to be coming from the movement to disinvest from fossil fuels.This currently rapidly growing movement is inter-linked with the carbon bubble research (CTI 2014) that shows that much of the known fossil fuel reserves need to stay in the ground in order to meet the challenge of climate change, and keep below a few degrees average global warming. It also shows that the valuation of companies related to these reserves risks a rapid reduction in share values,which could in turn lead to a financial crisis, and further falling fossil fuel demand. The Bank of England (Carney 2014), and Lord Turner, former CEO of the Financial Services Authority (The Actuary 2015), are two unexpected voices which have raised concerns on this issue. If this movement gathers momentum it raises questions over what impact this will have on some of the biggest actors within the energy system. At the same time, it has become clear in some countries that the disinvestment arguments are working alongside economic arguments for customers to become self-generators (usually with solar and storage technologies). In these situations, the network companies (which have hitherto relied on a payment per kWh used as revenue) are faced with network costs having to be paid for by fewer units of electricity. One answer is for suppliers to raise the network cost proportion of the unit of electricity which in turn makes it even more economic for customers to move to solar and storage. This is known as the 'death spiral'. Australia is one such place where this is happening and the PhD Case Study will be in Australia (1 trip).The point of the PhD is to come to some conclusion about how important the fossil fuel disinvestment movement is as a driver of energy policy; how important the carbon bubble argument is for energy policy; and whether 'death spirals' are unusual occurrences for network companies or whether their drivers are something the network companies need to understand. All of this has to be placed in a whole system view of energy policy, and within relevant theoretical debates about theories of change and transformation.