The Sun The Stratosphere and Seasonal Climate Prediction

科学背景：月度和季度预测是一个日益重要的研究领域，因为它与社会许多部门都有关联。它将大气科学和海洋学的元素与气候建模和极端天气等相关领域相结合。太阳的旋转导致到达地球上的紫外线太阳辐射量的变化，这可以通过两种方式影响平流层-一个越来越被认为对地表气候有很大影响的区域。首先，这种变化影响臭氧层，引起平流层温度和环流的变化;第二，重复的变化可以引起“平流层突然变暖”，这是一种戏剧性的事件，已知对欧洲冬季气候起着重要作用。本项目旨在了解月太阳变化对平流层的作用，研究方法：这项工作将使用观测，理论和各种计算机模型的组合完成，从简单的循环代码，以国家的最先进的季节性预测系统在英国气象局。该项目建立在气象局正在进行的季节预测和“空间天气”方面的世界领先的相关研究基础上。

Scientific Background: Monthly and seasonal forecasting is an increasingly important research area because of its relevance across many sectors of society. It combines elements of atmospheric science and oceanography with related areas such as climate modelling and extreme weather.The rotation of the Sun causes variations in the amount of ultraviolet solar radiation reaching us on Earth, which can affect the stratosphere - a region increasingly recognised as having a large effect on surface climate - in two ways. Firstly, such changes affect the ozone layer, causing changes to the temperature and circulation of the stratosphere; secondly, repeated changes can cause "sudden stratospheric warmings", which are dramatic events known to play a significant role on European winter climate.This project aims to understand the role of monthly solar variability on the stratosphere, and how such variability might affect the monthly and seasonal prediction of surface weather and climate.Research Methodology:The work will be accomplished using a combination of observations, theory, and a variety of computer models from simpler circulation codes, to the state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system at the United Kingdom Met Office. The project builds onongoing world-leading related research in the Met Office in seasonal prediction and "space weather".