No War, No Peace in the Niger Delta: Exploring the Functions of Violence within the Political Settlement Framework

概述我的研究探讨了政治解决中暴力的功能，以揭示战后政治（重新）解决后“没有战争，没有和平”的共同经验。从团体内部的动态来看，将分析将尼日尔三角洲主要武装团体的前好战领导人纳入政治解决方案对管理暴力有何影响。与文献中的主流叙述相反，我们认为，某些形式的持续军事活动并不体现精英-选民关系的破裂。相反，它们是精英契约实现过程的一部分。根据调查结果，有关建设和平活动的设计政策的影响应被identified.CONTEXTMy研究将解决有关和平进程和政治解决方案之间的联系，通过在大赦和解除武装，复员和重返社会方案在尼日尔三角洲的情况下看的问题。国际发展界日益认识到，包容性政治解决办法对于实现可持续地摆脱冲突至关重要，这与非洲和其他地方在冲突后政治（重新）解决办法之后反复出现的暴力循环不一致。在政治解决文献中，人们通常认为，精英们将和平进程通过谈判获得的物质利益分配给各自的组成群体，以确保效忠和遏制暴力。然而，很少有系统的分析，以了解武装团体内部如何确切地获得和维持对解除武装和复员的支持，以及精英谈判如何向下渗透并为战斗人员实现。同样，人们也不太了解这一进程与暴力之间的关系，本研究试图填补这一空白，分析将尼日尔三角洲主要武装团体的前好战领导人纳入政治解决方案对通过叛乱团体内部的政策管理暴力的影响。它将探讨精英讨价还价的实现与使用暴力之间的关系，研究这两个因素如何在结构上相互联系，如何由反叛团体的内部组织动态决定。成员之间的索赔和权利是如何组织的？内部等级制度和法律如何构成暴力和非暴力行为，以及有哪些再分配影响？这些动态与大赦前时期有何不同？如果假设民兵精英在参与政治解决时成为和平的利益攸关方，那么将证明，在大赦期间，值得为精英保留一个与冲突政治经济学有关的利润和权力制度。有助于维持一个从稳定不稳定局势中获益的制度的暴力行为形式-在尼日尔三角洲的情况下与石油的政治经济学有关-继续得到奖励。方法研究将利用数据收集，深入访谈以及历史分析来揭示问题的复杂性。这种多方法的方法与三角测量方法相结合，不仅旨在扩大和加深对研究现象的理解，而且还旨在提高研究结果的准确性和有效性。此外，它旨在遵循扎根理论的方法，在政治解决框架内推动暴力概念化的理论发展。数据收集将包括二手文献、政策文件、已发表的报告以及报纸和媒体分析。访谈数据将构成分析的关键部分。在海外实地考察期间，除了2019年3月至7月的小组讨论外，还将在尼日尔三角洲与主要武装团体成员进行半结构化访谈。

OVERVIEWMy research examines the functions of violence within political settlements to shed light on the common experience of "no war, no peace" following post-war political (re-)settlements. Looking at internal group dynamics, it will be analysed what implications the inclusion of ex-militant leaders of major armed groups in the Niger Delta into the political settlement have had for managing violence. In contrast to the dominant narrative in literature, it will be argued that certain forms of ongoing militant activities do not embody a breakdown of elite-constituency relationships. Instead, they are part of the materialization process of the elite pact. Based on the findings, policy implications regarding the design of peacebuilding activities shall be identified.CONTEXTMy research will address questions relating to the connection between peace processes and political settlements by looking at the case of the amnesty and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme in the Niger Delta. Growing recognition in the international development community that inclusive political settlements are crucial for enabling a sustainable exit from conflict is at odds with repeated cycles of violence following post-conflict political (re-)settlements in Africa as elsewhere. In the political settlement literature, it is commonly assumed that negotiated material benefits of peace processes are distributed by elites to their respective constituent groups to ensure allegiance and contain violence. Yet, there is little systematic analysis of how exactly support for disarmament and demobilisation is reached and maintained within armed groups and how elite bargains trickle down and materialize for combatants. Similarly, it is not well understood how this process relates to violence.This research seeks to fill this gap by analysing the implications that the inclusion of ex-militant leaders of major armed groups in the Niger Delta into the political settlement have had for managing violence through policies within insurgent groups. It will explore the relationship between the materialization of elite bargains and the use of violence by looking at how these two factors are structurally connected and determined by internal organizational dynamics of rebel groups. How are claims and entitlements organized between members? How do internal hierarchies and laws structure violent and non-violent behaviour and with what re-distributional impact? How do these dynamics differ from the pre-amnesty period? Against the assumption that militia elites become stakeholders of peace when being part of the political settlement, it will be demonstrated that a system of profit and power linked to the political economy of conflict is worth to be maintained for elites during the amnesty. Forms of violent behaviour contributing to the maintenance of a system that benefits from a situation of stable instability - linked to the political economy of oil in the case of the Niger Delta - continue to be rewarded. METHODOLOGYThe research will utilise data collection, in-depth interviews as well as historical analysis to unpack the complexity of the issue. This multi-methodological approach is aligned with the method of triangulation, not only aiming to widen and deepen the understanding of the study phenomenon, but also to increase the accuracy and validity of the research outcomes. Moreover, it aims to follow a grounded theory approach in inducing a theoretical advancement of the conceptualization of violence within the political settlement framework. Data collection will include secondary literature, policy documents, published reports as well as newspaper and media analysis. Interview data will form the key part of the analysis. During overseas fieldwork, semi-structured interviews will be conducted in the Niger Delta with members of major armed groups in addition to group discussions between March and July 2019.