RAPID: The Costs of Peace: War Experience, Territorial Loss, and Peace Agreement Consensus in Ukraine

RAPID：和平的代价：乌克兰的战争经历、领土丧失和和平协议共识

• 批准号: 2226741
• 负责人: Karina Korostelina
• 金额: $ 18.81万
• 依托单位: George Mason University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-05-15 至 2023-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2226741&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Costs; Peace; War; Experience

The Russia-Ukraine War raises an important question about whether a stable peace settlement is possible. This project examines the question by tracing the ways that wartime experiences shape ordinary Ukrainians’ attitudes toward different peace settlement scenarios. It focuses specifically on how people’s experiences and characteristics shape their dispositions toward potential territorial concessions. Such concessions are presently recognized by all sides as part of the road toward peace. Yet, in light of great resistance and suffering, witnessing the death of friends and family members, and extraordinary destruction and displacement, the question can be raised whether ordinary Ukrainians accept the loss of further state territory as a necessary price for peace. Deeper understanding of how general populations assess the cost of peace can greatly inform preparation, negotiation and implementation of peace agreements by both national governments and international third parties. To advance understanding of how people’s wartime experiences influence their positions toward peace agreements requiring territorial concessions, this project seeks to uncover the social psychological processes and wartime experiences informing the dispositions of ordinary Ukrainians toward peace. The scholarly literature suggests divergent impacts of war experience on attitude towards the costs of peace. One line of evidence suggests that direct exposure to violence and destruction may increase Ukrainians’ perception of immediate threat, which may in turn increase their willingness to support territorial concessions as a means to end violent hostilities. Other lines of evidence suggest that anger, threats to Ukrainian identity and values, and desire to honor the sacrifice of those who died defending Ukrainian land, may harden attitudes toward territorial compromises. In this context, war may have made all Ukrainian territory a ‘sacred value’ (absolute and non-negotiable) to ordinary Ukrainians. This would reduce the possibility of territorial compromise, and make any settlement potentially unstable. This study uses multiple methods to explore the complex factors that come into play as people work to resolve these dilemmas. The project includes collection and quantitative analysis of survey data from a large sample of Ukrainians, including locals and internally displaced people, across three towns close to the regions where active fighting is taking place. The survey is used to identify small groups of citizens across the same three towns to participate in focus groups. These discussions provide further opportunity to learn about how citizens make sense of and assess tradeoffs associated with a potential peace agreement. Integrated analysis of the survey and group discussions inform the development of theoretical and practical implications for scholars, policymakers and practitioners focused on peace agreements.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

俄乌战争提出了一个重要问题，即是否有可能实现稳定的和平解决。这个项目通过追踪战时经历如何塑造普通乌克兰人对不同和平解决方案的态度来研究这个问题。它特别侧重于人们的经验和特点如何塑造他们对潜在的领土让步的处置。目前，各方都承认这种让步是通往和平之路的一部分。然而，鉴于巨大的抵抗和痛苦，目睹朋友和家人的死亡，以及非同寻常的破坏和流离失所，可以提出一个问题，即普通乌克兰人是否接受进一步失去国家领土作为和平的必要代价。更深入地了解普通民众如何评估和平的代价，可以为各国政府和国际第三方编写、谈判和执行和平协定提供极大的信息。为了进一步了解人们的战时经历如何影响他们对需要领土让步的和平协议的立场，本项目旨在揭示社会心理过程和战时经历，这些过程和经历告诉普通乌克兰人对和平的态度。学术文献表明，战争经历对和平代价的态度产生了不同的影响。有证据表明，直接面对暴力和破坏可能会增加乌克兰人对眼前威胁的感觉，这反过来可能会增加他们支持领土让步的意愿，以此作为结束暴力敌对行动的手段。其他证据表明，愤怒、对乌克兰身份和价值观的威胁，以及对那些为保卫乌克兰土地而牺牲的人的荣誉的渴望，可能会强化对领土妥协的态度。在这种情况下，战争可能使所有乌克兰领土成为普通乌克兰人的“神圣价值”（绝对和不可谈判）。这将减少领土妥协的可能性，并使任何解决方案都可能不稳定。这项研究使用多种方法来探索人们在解决这些困境时发挥作用的复杂因素。该项目包括收集和定量分析乌克兰人的调查数据，包括当地人和境内流离失所者，这些人来自靠近正在发生激烈战斗的地区的三个城镇。这项调查是用来确定在同一三个城镇的小团体的公民参加焦点小组。这些讨论提供了进一步的机会，以了解公民如何理解和评估与潜在的和平协议有关的权衡。对调查和小组讨论的综合分析为关注和平协定的学者、政策制定者和实践者提供了理论和实践意义的发展信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。