The EU's Responses to External Threats: Between Power and Institutions (Working Title)

我的研究分析了欧盟对近邻国家威胁的应对这一日益热门的问题，评估了成员国和欧盟机构在制定应对措施方面的各自作用，并通过使用过程追踪方法，归纳出每个因素对应对措施产生更大影响的条件及其因果机制。制度将被定义为“一套规则和规范，规定各国应以何种方式相互合作和竞争”。指导欧盟外交政策的规则和准则被编入《欧洲联盟条约》第21条。根据广义的安全概念(Ullman，1983；Buzan/Wæver/de Wilde，1998；Mathews，1989；Buzan，1991)，威胁将被定义为“有可能损害欧盟安全的实体或现象”。本文基于三个实证案例研究：欧盟对乌克兰危机(2014年初至2016年年中)、移民危机(2015年初至2016年年末)和利比亚内战(2014年年中至2016年年中)的应对。我分析的因变量是欧盟的反应，即它在这三种情况下的政策产出。这仅限于欧盟共同外交和安全政策框架内的产出，不包括个别成员国的外交政策。独立变量是：i)成员国的安全偏好和ii)欧盟规则和规范。

My research analyses the increasingly topical issue of the European Union's responses to threats in its near abroad, assessing the respective role of Member States and EU Institutions in shaping responses and - by using the process tracing method - inductively theorising the conditions under which each factor exerts a greater impact on responses and the causal mechanisms through which it does so. An Institution will be defined as 'a set of rules and norms that stipulate the ways in which states should co-operate and compete with one another'. The rules and norms guiding EU foreign policy are codified in Article 21 of the Treaty on European Union. Drawing on a broad conception of security (Ullman, 1983; Buzan/Wæver/de Wilde, 1998; Mathews, 1989; Buzan, 1991), threat will be defined as 'an entity or phenomenon that has the potential to damage the European Union's security'. The thesis is based on three empirical case studies: the EU's response to the Ukraine crisis (early 2014 -mid 2016), to the migration crisis (early 2015- late 2016) and to civil war in Libya (mid 2014- mid 2016). The dependent variable of my analysis is the EU's response, namely its policy output in the three cases. This is limited to output within the framework of the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy and does not include the foreign policies of individual Member States. The independent variables are: i) Member States' security preferences and ii) EU rules and norms.