Development of targeted vaccination strategies during disease elimination

对全球传染病动态的分析通常集中在暴发的初始阶段。另一方面，感染如何消失以及在哪些群体中消失的研究较少，但对于制定干预战略越来越重要。该项目通过与世界卫生组织和无国界医生组织合作，对2003年至今非洲大陆脊髓灰质炎和麻疹疫情的大型数据集进行定量分析。该分析将探讨在疫情期间，年龄，疫苗接种状态和“高危”人群的相对发病率如何变化，并评估先前疫苗接种计划的影响。根据这些数据，将开发一个数学模型，用于评估未来爆发的替代疫苗接种策略。这项跨学科研究将提供一个机会，直接比较脊髓灰质炎和麻疹之间的爆发动态，并制定新的战略，将转化为发展中国家改善卫生干预措施。学生将通过硕士模块和外部课程培养统计，数学和流行病学技能。此外，该项目将磨练发展中国家制定和评估干预战略的跨学科技能。该项目直接符合MRC的战略目标3：走向全球：通过与国际知名的非政府组织直接合作，解决发展中国家的重要传染病。此外，这个跨学科的项目符合所有三个MRC的关键主题：全球传染病，大数据集的定量技能和评估复杂的干预措施。定量技能2通过对大型数据集的统计分析，结合最先进的技术来解释未观察到的过程开发传染病传播的数学模型2。跨学科技能与社会科学和公共政策的接口：将社会变量纳入分析，例如在识别高风险人口群体和理解发展中国家疫苗接种覆盖率所涉及的公共卫生决定因素时。了解不同脊髓灰质炎和麻疹疫苗的生物学机制和有效性，对不同环境下疫苗有效性的决定因素和群体免疫力的决定因素进行分类3.全生物体生理学通过使用系统发育分析来分析不同的疫情，以确定病例的相关性以及人群连接性如何影响传播

Analysis of the dynamics of global infectious disease are typically focussed on the initial stages ofan outbreak. At the other side of the spectrum, how infections die out and in which groups, is lesswell studied but increasingly important in order to develop intervention strategies. This projectwill conduct quantitative analysis of large datasets from polio and measles outbreaks in theAfrican continent from 2003-present, through collaboration with the World Health Organizationand Medicins Sans Frontiers. The analysis will explore how the relative incidence by age,vaccination status and "high-risk" groups change during an outbreak and assess the impact ofprevious vaccination schedules. From this data, a mathematical model will be developed that canevaluate alternative vaccination strategies for future outbreaks. This interdisciplinary research willprovide an opportunity to directly compare outbreak dynamics between polio and measles anddevelop new strategies that will translate into improved health interventions in developingcountries. The student will develop statistical, mathematical and epidemiological skills, withtraining through MSc modules and external courses. Furthermore, the project will honeinterdisciplinary skills for the development and evaluation of intervention strategies in developingcountries.This project directly fits in with the MRC's Strategic Aim 3: Going Global: through collaboratingdirectly with internationally-renowned non-governmental organisations and tackling importantinfectious diseases in developing countries. Furthermore, this interdisciplinary project aligns withall three MRC key themes: Global Infectious Disease, Quantitative Skills for Large Data Sets andEvaluating Complex Interventions.This studentship will provide training in the following key skill areas:1. Quantitative skills2Through statistical analysis of large datasets that will incorporate state-ofthe-arttechniques to account for unobserved processesDevelopment of mathematical models for transmission of infectiousdiseases2. Interdisciplinary skillsInterface with social sciences and public policy: incorporating social variablesinto analysis, such as when identifying high-risk demographic groups andunderstanding public health determinants implicated in vaccination coveragein developing countriesInterface with clinical considerations: understanding the biological mechanismand efficacy of different polio and measles vaccines, classifying thedeterminants of vaccine effectiveness in different settings and determinants ofpopulation 'herd' immunity3. Whole organism physiologyAnalysing distinct outbreaks through the use of phylogenetic analyses to inferrelatedness of cases and how population connectivity may influencetransmission