Dynamic Analyses of Single Motherhood

描述(由申请人提供)：HD 29550的延续扩展了我们之前对非婚生育动态的研究，进一步探讨了非婚第一胎的情况，包括同居夫妇的生育；更深入地研究了婚前第一胎的过程；并开始调查女性可以选择在未婚时停止生育的一种方式。我们比较婚内和婚外出生婴儿的社会经济状况的差异，并询问近几十年来这些差异是否扩大了。我们从同居父母和已婚父母所生子女的角度比较了家庭稳定性，并确定了可能解释观察到的显著差异的因素。我们模拟了从性行为开始到非婚第一胎的过程，包括估计外源性协变量对非婚第一胎患病率的间接影响。我们记录了黑人和白人的非婚生育率趋势如何受到性行为开始年龄的下降和结婚年龄的增加的影响。我们利用在多次浪潮中收集的关于母亲和儿童的异常丰富的数据来源，来检查母亲对子女进入性行为的预测是否受到子女特征的影响。我们比较了已婚、同居和单身女性的避孕节育率和避孕节育持续时间，以研究同居和单身女性在未婚时可能选择停止生育的一种方法。我们使用了一个连续时间的竞争风险风险框架，它将允许我们将女性的非随机选择建模为单身、同居和婚姻状态。在可行的情况下，我们比较多个数据来源的结果，包括3月和6月的当前人口调查，1979年的全国青年纵向调查，以及1988年和1995年的全国家庭增长调查。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This continuation of HD 29550 extends our previous studies of the dynamics of nonmarital fertility by inquiring further into the circumstances surrounding a nonmarital first birth, including births to cohabiting couples; by delving more deeply into the processes prior to a premarital first birth; and by opening inquiry into one means by which women may choose to cease childbearing while unmarried. We compare differences in the socioeconomic circumstances of infants born within and outside of marriage and ask if these differences have widened in recent decades. We contrast family stability from the perspective of children born to cohabiting and married parents and identify factors that may explain observed gross differentials. We model the progression from onset of sexual activity to a nonmarital first birth, including estimation of indirect effects of exogenous covariates on nonmarital first birth prevalence. We document how trends in nonmarital fertility for blacks and whites may have been affected by decreases in age at onset of sexual activity intercourse and by increases in age at entry into marriage. We exploit an unusually rich source of data on mothers and children gathered at multiple waves to examine if maternal predictors of offspring entry into sexual activity are mediated by offspring characteristics. We compare parity- and duration-specific rates of contraceptive sterilization for married, cohabiting, and single women to study one means by which cohabiting and single woman may choose to cease childbearing while unmarried. We use a continuous-time competing-risk hazard framework that will permit us to model the nonrandom selection of women into single, cohabiting, and marital statuses. Where feasible, we compare results across multiple data sources, including the March and June Current Population Surveys, the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the 1988 and 1995 National Surveys of Family Growth.