What's driving extinctions in a global biodiversity hotspot? Quantifying impats of climate change and land-use change on endemic species in the Nilgri

气候和土地利用变化是全球生物多样性下降的主要驱动因素。虽然已经深入研究了这些威胁中的每一种造成生物多样性丧失的个别途径，但它们的综合影响尚未得到充分探讨和量化。然而，越来越多的人怀疑这些因素之间存在相互关联，并可能对受养护关注的种群和社区以及生态系统功能和服务产生严重影响。特别是，随着气候变化加剧和全球对自然资源的需求继续增加，这些相互作用可能对残留的生物多样性热点地区产生特别有害的影响。 因此，一个关键的保护优先事项是评估这些相互作用的形状和强度，但缺乏长期数据往往阻碍了这种努力。然而，最近在卫星遥感信息获取方面的变化使科学家能够以成本效益高的方式探测和量化大面积地区各种环境和生物参数的时空变化。这为有兴趣预测各种威胁对生物多样性的短期和长期影响及其可能的相互作用的生态学家开辟了新的研究途径。该项目旨在利用最近全球卫星数据可访问性的增加来回答有关气候和土地利用变化如何相互作用以加速生物多样性丧失的关键问题。它将在测试一系列针对印度西高止山脉尼尔格里斯地区的预测的同时这样做，这是一个关键的全球生物多样性热点。根据现有的证据和知识，我们预计（i）过去30年来，两个本地季风系统的强度和极端事件的频率将显著增加;（ii）观测到的气候趋势将显著影响该地区特定土地利用类型的质量、数量和配置;（iii）气候和土地使用变化之间的相互作用对生物多样性产生重大影响，包括物种丰富度的丧失、生态系统分布的变化和地方病生境的适宜性。该项目将与印度自然保护联盟的南亚和中亚保护方案合作实施，该方案将汇集一个强大的监督团队;该项目将利用印度境内非政府组织部门的良好联系。除了在科学期刊上发表研究结果外，还将鼓励学生与合作的非政府组织合作，提供外行摘要和信息概况介绍，以帮助当地的保护管理。该项目的产出将包括特有物种的生境适宜性图和确定养护的目标地区和生境。这将为信息缺乏地区的保护工作提供信息和支持，将提供建立持久项目所需的初步步骤，并提高对气候变化和土地使用变化对当地主要流行人群的相对和互动影响的认识。此外，由于该地区福尔斯属于三个不同州的多个管理管辖区，项目结果还将促进跨州协调管理战略的制定，并为当地利益相关者参与生物多样性管理提供机会。更广泛地说，这项研究还将推动开发开放源方法，以便在有限的时间和财政资源下有效监测大空间尺度的生物多样性。

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide. While the individual pathways by which each of these threats shapes biodiversity loss have been intensively researched, their combined effects are yet to be fully explored and quantified. Interactive associations between these factors are however increasingly suspected to occur, and could have serious implications for populations and communities of conservation concern, as well as for ecosystem function and services. In particular, these interactions could have particularly damaging effects in remnant biodiversity hotspots as climate change intensifies and global demand for natural resources continues to rise. A key conservation priority is thus to assess the shape and strength of these interactions, but lack of long-term data often impedes such efforts. Recent changes in the accessibility of satellite remote sensing information have however enabled scientists to cost-effectively detect and quantify spatial and temporal changes in various environmental and biological parameters across large areas. This has opened new avenues of research for ecologists interested in predicting the short and long-term impacts of various threats, and their possible interactions, on biological diversity. This project aims to capitalise on the recent increase in global satellite data accessibility to answer key questions pertaining to how climate and land use changes interact to precipitate biodiversity loss. It will do so while testing a series of predictions focused on the Nilgris region in the Western Ghats of India, a key global biodiversity hotspot. Given the evidence and knowledge available so far, we expect (i) the intensity of the two local monsoon systems and the frequency of extreme events to show significant increases over the past three decades; (ii) the climatic trends observed to significantly impact the quality, quantity and configuration of specific land use types in this region; (iii) the interactions between climate and land use changes to significantly impact biodiversity including loss of species richness, change in ecosystem distribution and habitat suitability for endemics. The project will be carried out in partnership with ZSL's South and Central Asia conservation programme bringing together a strong supervisory team; it will utilise well established contacts in the NGO sector within India. In addition to publishing findings in scientific journals the student will be encouraged to work with the partnering NGO to provide lay person summaries and information factsheets to aid local conservation management. The outputs from this project will include habitat suitability maps for endemic species and identification of target areas and habitats for conservation. This will inform and support conservation efforts in an information deficient area, will provide the initial step required to set up enduring projects and improve understanding of the relative and interactive impacts of climate change and land use change on key local endemic populations. In addition, as this region falls under multiple management jurisdictions covering area within three different states, the project findings will also facilitate the development of strategies for co-ordinated management across state boundaries and provide opportunities for engagement of local stakeholders in biodiversity management. More broadly, this research will also advance the development of open-source methodologies for efficient monitoring of biodiversity at a large spatial scale under limited time and financial resources.