Manufacturing Competitiveness in Times of China: Evidence from South Africa.

与南南贸易和全球价值链一体化日益增加相关的机遇和挑战已成为发展中国家学术和政策辩论的中心议题。鉴于自20世纪90年代中期以来中国在世界制造业中的份额大幅增加，以及自2000年代中期以来其出口产品的国内附加值含量不断增加，中国在这些讨论中显得尤为重要。中国商业重量的急剧扩张，以及该国从全球组装商升级为沿着全球价值链的零部件供应商和系统集成商，甚至在一些先进的制造业领域，都引发了关于其对世界其他地区影响的重要问题。对于许多陷入中等收入地位、经历过早去工业化和贸易失衡恶化的国家来说，情况尤其如此。本研究采用结构-演化方法，试图了解当前全球化背景，特别是中国的崛起，在多大程度上改变了中等收入经济体的目标，加剧了它们在向高收入地位过渡时面临的挑战。这一广泛的研究问题是在南非等表现不佳的中等收入国家的背景下运作的，在种族隔离结束后，全球经济的日益一体化，特别是来自中国的进口竞争的持续加剧，与严重的失业，增长表现不佳，去工业化动态，国内经济结构升级的严重挑战密切相关。本文的实证部分由三个独立的章节组成，每一章都从不同的角度探讨了中国崛起对南非制造商过去20年绩效的影响。在第一章中，我分析了中国进口渗透对企业绩效的影响，并考虑了国内企业的技术和生产能力的中介作用。具体而言，本文使用企业层面的数据库（2010-2017年），研究了中国进口渗透（包括直接和间接（如通过沿着国内价值链的投入产出联系））对制造业企业绩效的影响，以及在能力开发方面投入相对较多的企业是否更能抵御这种竞争压力。本章采用先进计量经济学与投入产出分析相结合的方法（AQM），在第二章实证分析中，考察了中国中高技术制造业产品出口的增长在多大程度上取代或补充了南非在第三进口市场上的出口。使用2000年至2018年高度详细的协调制度产品层面数据，我估计了南非和中国对这些南非商品最相关进口商的中高技术出口的增强重力模型方程。为了补充上述练习，在第三章实证中，我实证调查南非作为采矿相关设备生产和创新的战略地点正在被边缘化的主要原因，尽管其国内供应商基础的技术能力很强。通过分析占主导地位的跨国公司和强大的新兴中国公司在塑造全球采矿机械行业治理结构中的作用，本章强调了南非公司在试图从升级中获取价值，巩固其竞争地位，从本地走向全球时所面临的障碍的非技术性。主要数据是通过2019年1月至6月对南非公司、行业协会和相关机构的代表进行的49次采访收集的。

The opportunities and challenges associated with increasing South-South trade and global value chain (GVCs) integration have gained centre-stage in the academic and policy debate across developing countries. China looms large in these discussions, given the massive gains in its world manufacturing share since the mid-1990s, and the increasing domestic value-added content of its exports since the mid-2000s. The dramatic expansion in Chinese commercial weight, and the country's upgrading from global assembler to parts provider and system integrator along GVCs, even in some advanced manufacturing sectors, opens up important questions on its impact on the rest of the world. This is particularly the case for many countries trapped in their middle-income status, experiencing premature deindustrialisation and deteriorating trade imbalances. Informed by a structural-evolutionary approach, this research tries to understand to what extent the current globalisation context, particularly the rise of China, shifts the goal posts for middle-income economies, heightening the challenges they face in their transition to high-income status. This broad research question is operationalised within the context of an underperforming middle-income country such as South Africa, where the increasing integration into the global economy after the end of the apartheid, and particularly the ongoing intensification of import competition from China, has gone hand-in-hand with severe unemployment, poor growth performances, deindustrialisation dynamics, serious challenges in upgrading the domestic economic structure. The empirical section of the thesis consists of three independent chapters, each of which takes a distinct approach to explore the effects of the rise of China on the performances of South African manufacturers over the past two decades.In the first empirical chapter, I analyse the impact of Chinese import penetration on firms' performances, taking into account the mediating role of technology and production capabilities of domestic companies. Specifically, using a unique firm-level database (2010-2017), I study the impact of Chinese import penetration - both direct and indirect (e.g. through input-output linkages along the domestic value chain) - on the performances of manufacturing firms, and whether firms investing relatively more intensively in capabilities' development are more resilient to such competitive pressure. This chapter employs AQMs (advanced econometrics combined with I-O analysis).In the second empirical chapter, I investigate the extent to which increasing Chinese exports of medium- to high-tech manufacturing products have displaced or complemented South African ones in third importing markets. Using highly detailed Harmonized System product-level data from 2000 to 2018, I estimate an augmented gravity model equation on South African and Chinese medium- to high-tech exports to the most relevant importers of these South African goods.To complement the exercises above, in the third empirical chapter, I empirically investigate the main reasons behind the ongoing marginalisation of South Africa as a strategic location for production and innovation of mining-related equipment, despite the strong technological capabilities of its domestic supplier base. By analysing the role of dominant multinational incumbent firms and powerful emerging Chinese actors in shaping the governance structures of the global mining machinery industry, the chapter highlights the non-technological nature of the barriers facing South African firms in their attempt to capture value from upgrading, and to consolidate their competitive position, moving from local to global. Primary data has been gathered through 49 interviews conducted with representatives from companies, industry associations and relevant institutions in South Africa, between January and June 2019.