Against the odds: understanding why and how effective reform happens in Nigeria

一系列尼日利亚和国际行为体一直试图支持和改革尼日利亚的公共服务，但没有实现长期改善（刘易斯和瓦茨，2015年）。然而，尼日利亚各州提供的服务并不统一。一些改革带来了更具包容性的公共产品和服务（Abah，2012;刘易斯& Watts，2015），但很少有文献清楚地说明公共部门改革取得进展时是如何或为什么取得进展的（Roll，2014）。分析工具正在努力进行所需的详细政治分析。本研究探讨在不同的尼日利亚国家的公共部门的有效性的情况下，使他们的因素，同时解决盲点在现有的政治analysis.Research questionsWhat是导致更有效的公共部门改革在不同的尼日利亚国家的关键因素？-国家层面的政治安排与国家政治解决有何关系？是什么促使和推动了这场改革的出现？是什么使改革得以实施？改革进行了哪些结构和体制变革，从而提供了更具包容性的服务？理论框架使用Roll（2014：24）对“有效性口袋”（POE）的定义来确定有效的改革法官，以增加获得服务的机会和/或提高质量。现有的POE研究侧重于经济成果（Pogoson & Roll，2014）;这项研究将侧重于社会成果。一个有用的新框架是政治解决分析，它审查了谈判权力和资源如何在精英群体之间分配的政治进程（Hickey，2013年）。Grindle（2012）和Mahoney & Thelen（2010）的制度方法也为理解制度变迁提供了有价值的方法，强调了行为者能动性的重要性。政治解决方案分析通常不会解释更多的当地或国际参与者如何塑造解决方案（Golooba-Mutebi & Hickey，2013），并且往往忽视思想和利益的作用（Lavers & Hickey，2016）。政治解决方案的概念应用到一个联邦系统和案件的积极偏差有助于发展这一概念，并进一步确定更多的变量影响有效的公共部门改革现有的理论。ImpactThe研究很可能是有兴趣的改革思想的政府官员，组织和国际行为者，正试图支持治理改革在尼日利亚。具体而言，这项研究将与PERL合作，吸引国际发展政策制定者和尼日利亚政策界的参与。

A range of Nigerian and international actors have been trying to support and reform Nigerian public services without achieving long-term improvements (Lewis & Watts, 2015). Yet, service provision across Nigeria's states is not uniform. Some reforms have resulted in more inclusive public goods and services (Abah, 2012; Lewis & Watts, 2015).The literature is rarely clear on how or why progress in public sector reform works when it does (Roll, 2014). Analytical tools are struggling with the detailed political analysis needed. This research examines instances of public sector effectiveness in different Nigerian states and the factors which enable them, while addressing blind spots in existing political analysis.Research questionsWhat are the critical factors which have resulted in more effective public sector reform in different Nigerian states?- How does the state level political arrangement relate to the national political settlement?- What motivated and prompted the reform to emerge?- What enabled the reform to be implemented?- What structural and institutional changes has the reform made which resulted in more inclusive service provision?Theoretical frameworkUsing Roll's (2014:24) definition of 'pockets of effectiveness' (POE) to identify effective reforms judges in terms of increasing access to the service and/or improving the quality. Existing studies of POE focus on economic outcomes (Pogoson & Roll, 2014); this research will focus on social outcomes. One useful emerging framework is political settlements analysis, which examines the political processes negotiating how power and resources are distributed between elite groups (Hickey, 2013). The institutional approaches of Grindle (2012) and Mahoney & Thelen (2010) also offer valuable ways of understanding institutional change, emphasising the importance of actors' agency.However, these frameworks are still being tested. Political settlements analysis does not usually explain how more local or international actors shape the settlement (Golooba-Mutebi & Hickey, 2013) and tends to overlook the role of ideas as well as interests (Lavers & Hickey, 2016). Applying the concept of political settlements to a federal system and cases of positive deviance helps develop this concept and furthers existing theory by identifying more variables influencing effective public sector reform.ImpactThe research is likely to be of interest to reform-minded government officials, organisations and international actors which are trying to support governance reform in Nigeria. Specifically, this research will work with PERL to engage international development policy makers and the Nigerian policy community.