The Fertility Transition in Brazil: 1960-2000

描述(申请人提供)：我们建议调查1960年至2000年巴西生育率、死亡率和发展之间的关系。我们将利用在此期间进行的五次人口普查的微观数据，分析生育率在时间和空间上的转变。我们的调查既遵循并扩展了最近对欧洲历史经验的分析，并将试图回答有关一个发展中大国人口转型的性质和决定因素的根本问题。我们认为，巴西人口普查微数据系列的长度、规模和细节在发展中国家中是无与伦比的。此外，它使我们能够研究这样一个庞大而多样化的人口的生育率和死亡率的大部分过渡时期：从1960年到2000年，巴西的总和生育率从6.0下降到2.3，而5QO从大约每1000人中有170人下降到45人。 该项目的具体目标是构建和绘制500多个称为微型区域的空间单位，这些单位可在所有五次人口普查中查明和比较；估计每次普查中每个微型区域的生育率和死亡率；在每次普查中为微型区域的城乡地区的发展和生活条件的各种理论上相关的方面建立指标；估计固定效应模型，以回答关于这些指标的变化与生育率变化相关联的程度的问题，并改进以考虑内生性和地方反馈；并使用贝叶斯方法估计每个微区域的生育率和死亡率转变的时间和速度，以拟合每个微区域的时间序列的Logistic曲线。总体目标是评估开始过渡的门槛在1960-2000年期间是否以及如何发生变化，以及这些空间单位的发展与生育率过渡的关联程度。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to investigate relations between fertility, mortality, and development in Brazil from 1960 to 2000. We will analyze the fertility transition in both time and space, using microdata from five censuses carried out during the period. Our investigation both follows and extends recent analyses of European historical experience, and will attempt to answer fundamental questions about the nature and determinants of the demographic transition in a large developing country. The length, size and detail of the Brazilian census microdata series is, we believe, unsurpassed among developing countries. Moreover, it enables us to study a period covering the bulk of the transitions in fertility and mortality for this large and diverse population: from 1960 to 2000 Brazil's Total Fertility Rate fell from 6.0 to 2.3, while 5Qo fell from about 170 to 45 per 1000. The specific aims of the project are to construct and map over 500 spatial units called micro-regions that can be identified in and compared across all five censuses; estimate fertility and mortality for each micro-region in each census; construct indicators of various theoretically relevant aspects of development and living conditions in the rural and urban areas of the micro-regions in each census; estimate fixed effects models to answer questions about the degree to which changes in these indicators are associated with changes in fertility with refinements to account for endogeneity and local feedback; and estimate the timing and speed of the fertility and mortality transitions in each of the micro-regions using Bayesian methods to fit logistic curves for each micro-region's time series. The overall goals are to assess whether and how the threshold for the initiation of the transition shifted during the 1960-2000 period, as well as the degree to which development is associated with the fertility transition in these spatial units.