A Populous Nation? The Political Use of Demographic Statistics in the USSR, 1965-1991

该项目将侧重于1965年至1991年期间的苏联人口统计，主要是为了了解人口统计的作用和意义，作为有争议的知识，作为政治资源，并作为公共话语。关键主题：-关于测量和分类方法的冲突，特别是关于种族/国籍。对非俄罗斯民族人口实力和政治地位的长期动态和趋势的看法。死亡率上升和生育率下降的看法对社会主义制度的信仰的影响，并对中心-外围relations.My建议的方法是一种混合的方法，结合统计分析的原始数据与关键的文本分析的档案文件和大众媒体和专业出版物的话语分析。将审查各种来源的生育率和死亡率数据。1970年和1979年苏联人口普查档案中的人口普查数据提供了丰富的信息来源，按族裔和母语分列。地区统计手册、苏联专业期刊和政府报告补充了人口普查数据，提供了有关人口趋势和公共卫生的信息。苏联对人口统计数据的混淆使这项研究变得复杂。Andreev等人（1994年）讨论了人口普查控制表格的操纵，而银（1986年）关于苏联人口普查中种族的工作和安德森（1986年）关于家庭数据的工作突出了方法上的争议。Tolts（2008年）的一项研究表明，当时传播的人口数据只是收集的一部分。因此，在分析已发表的数据的同时，调查俄罗斯档案揭示了苏联人口统计的过程和生产是至关重要的。初步研究发现，俄罗斯国家经济档案馆（中央统计局，f）中有大量最近解密的定量和定性材料。1562年），俄罗斯国家档案馆（理事会部长，f。5446）和俄罗斯国家近代史档案馆（前党档案馆，特别是苏共中央委员会，f。1、3、5）。我还将调查苏联科学院的档案，并分析专业期刊，如俄罗斯国家图书馆的《统计公报》。除两份报章外，所有这些资料目前都只有印刷本，政府并无计划将其数码化。因此，审查这些文件需要在俄罗斯莫斯科进行实地考察。由于俄罗斯档案馆不允许有照片，因此需要一段很长的档案研究时间，因为所有的东西都必须在档案馆内阅读和记录。这一方法将使人们深入了解苏联人口统计数据的编制、表述和后果。它将不寻求重建苏联后期人口发展的“真相”，而是批判性地参与塑造这一知识的因素，围绕它旋转的叙述，以及它产生的政策和干预措施。这项研究是重要和及时的，不仅因为它提供了一种新的方式来理解苏联后期的发展和系统性崩溃的根源，而且因为后共产主义俄罗斯继续专注于人口增长问题，包括少数民族的生育率，当代的焦虑部分源于苏联政策。更广泛地说，在更好地理解人口在多民族国家的政治作用，更好地为这些国家的公共卫生和人口政策以及外部提供的发展指导和援助提供信息方面，还有很大的空间。

This project will focus on Soviet demography during the period 1965-1991, seeking principally to understand the role and significance of demographic statistics, as contested knowledge, as political resource, and as public discourse. Key themes:- Conflicts over methodologies of measurement and classification, especially regarding ethnicity/nationality.- Perceptions of long-term dynamics and trends regarding the demographic strength and political position of non-Russian ethnicities.- The impact of perceptions of rising mortality and falling fertility on faith in the socialist system, and on centre-periphery relations.My proposed methodology is a mixed method, combining statistical analysis of primary data with critical textual analysis of archival documentation and discourse analysis of mass media and specialist publications. Fertility and mortality data from various sources will be examined. Census data, available in archives for the 1970 and 1979 USSR censuses, provide a rich source of information, broken down by ethnicity and native language. Regional statistical handbooks, specialist Soviet journals and government reports supplement the census data, providing information on population trends and public health. Soviet obfuscation of demographic data makes this research complex. Andreev et al. (1994) discuss manipulation of census control forms, while Silver's (1986) work on ethnicity in Soviet censuses and Anderson's (1986) work on family data highlight methodological disputes. A study by Tolts (2008) shows that population data disseminated at the time was only a portion of what was collected. It is vital, therefore, alongside analyzing published data, to investigate what the Russian archives reveal about the processes and production of Soviet demography. Preliminary research has identified a large volume of recently declassified quantitative and qualitative material in the Russian State Archive of the Economy (Central Statistical Administration, f. 1562), the Russian State Archive (Council of Ministers, f. 5446) and the Russian State Archive of Recent History (former Party Archive, esp. CPSU Central Committee, f. 1,3,5). I shall also investigate the archives of the USSR Academy of Science, as well as analyzing professional journals such as Vestnik Statistiki (Bulletin of Statistics) available from the Russian State Library. With the exception of two newspaper titles, all these materials are currently available in hard copy only and there are no plans to digitise them. Examining them will therefore necessitate undertaking fieldwork in Moscow, Russia. As photographs are not allowed in Russian archives a significant period of archival research will be needed, as everything must be read and recorded inside the archive building. This methodology will offer insight into the production, presentation, and consequences of Soviet demographic statistics. It will seek not so much to reconstruct the 'truth' about late Soviet population development, but to engage critically with the factors that shaped this knowledge, the narratives that were spun around it, and the policies and interventions that it produced. The research is important and timely, not only because it offers a new way of understanding late Soviet development and the origins of systemic collapse, but because post-communist Russia continues to be preoccupied with questions of demographic growth, including the fertility of ethnic minorities, and contemporary anxieties partially stem from Soviet policy. More widely, there is substantial scope to develop better understanding of the political role of demography in multi-ethnic states, better to inform public health and population policy within these countries, and development guidance and aid provided from outside.