The impact of the UK Government's Universal Credit (UC) programme on labour markets and wider social/economic outcomes

这一博士学位由ESRC与约瑟夫·朗特里基金会合作提供全额资金，将评估英国政府的普遍信贷(UC)计划对劳动力市场和更广泛的社会/经济成果的影响。UC是英国政府在社会保障政策方面的旗舰变化，计划在2018年年底全面推出，最终-一旦税收抵免和其他福利申领人加入系统-约700万个家庭预计将获得UC。这套改革的一个关键要素是将许多不同的好处精简到一个统一通信中。这些改革的其他内容包括向租户支付住房福利，而不是直接向房东支付，以及从每两周支付一次改为每月支付一次。这些改革措施出台之际，英国经济正艰难求增长，通胀呈上升趋势，平均实际收入也在缩水。正如最近的JRF报告(英国贫困2017‘)所显示的那样，过去20年来英国的贫困减少面临逆转的危险。理解福利改革在这一叙事中扮演的角色至关重要。研究问题和方法本博士学位将讨论几个关键的研究问题：1)UC的推出对当地劳动力市场结果产生了什么影响，如失业和劳动力市场参与？我会考虑那些有工作的人和那些没有工作的人的贫困经历2)UC对家庭财务有什么影响，例如通过收入和无担保债务？3)从更广泛的角度来看个人福祉，UC的推出是否增加了抗抑郁药的描述、食品库的使用或犯罪率？这一博士学位将导致对经济学文献的至少三篇确定的贡献，这些文献将针对顶级普通兴趣和实地期刊。此外，这项工作将被纳入一系列非技术性总结论文，这些论文将由JRF和斯特拉斯克莱德大学阿兰德研究所(FAI)的弗雷泽发布。鉴于公众对了解UC推出的影响非常感兴趣，预计对这一计划的评估将引起极大的兴趣，特别是在英国政府考虑进一步的福利改革时。此外，随着福利权力被下放到苏格兰议会，根据这项研究将提供的证据基础，有可能在下放的层面上采取行动。这些问题将通过一种名为“差异回归”的稳健的经验方法来解决，这种方法可以将政策的影响与混杂因素(即经济气候、社会态度等)隔离开来。这种方法之所以成为可能，是因为UC正在逐步招生，从而提供了一个机会，可以在“治疗”区域(已实施UC)和“受控”区域(UC尚未实施)之间进行比较。时间安排在第一年，我将熟悉文献、将使用的经验方法，并努力根据国家统计局和HMRC的微数据构建关键的收入数据(这预计需要3至6个月)。博士学位的下6个月将侧重于剩余的数据收集和第一篇论文实证战略的实施。预计到第一年年底，我将在2020年1月的苏格兰研究生计划博士会议上有一些初步的结果供讨论和介绍。然后，我将努力完善这些结果，以回应反馈，并制定第一章的草稿。第二章和第三章将重点评估UC的推出对其他更广泛的社会结果的影响，如全科医生开出的抗抑郁药、食物银行的使用和犯罪。这些章节将分别在第二年和第三年完成。

This PhD, fully funded by the ESRC in collaboration with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, will evaluate the impact of the UK Government's Universal Credit (UC) programme on labour markets and wider social/economic outcomes. UC is the UK Government's flagship change in social security policy, and is scheduled to reach full rollout by the end of 2018, and eventually - once tax credit and other benefit claimants are added to the system - some 7 million families are expected to receive UC. A key element of this set of reforms is the streamlining of a number of different benefits that are available into a single UC. Other elements of these reforms include paying housing benefit to tenants rather than directly to landlords, and moving from a fortnightly payment schedule to a monthly payment schedule. These reforms come at a time when the UK economy is struggling for growth, inflation is trending upwards and average real incomes are shrinking. As the recent JRF report (UK poverty 2017') shows, the reduction in poverty in the UK seen over the past 20 years are in danger of being reversed. Understanding the role that welfare reform plays in this narrative is crucial. Research Questions and Methodology There are several key research questions that will be addressed in this PhD: 1) What impact has the rollout of UC had on local labour market outcomes, such as unemployment and labour market participation? I will consider the poverty experience of those 'in work' as well as those 'out of work' 2) What impact has UC had on household finances, for example through earnings and unsecured debt? 3) Looking more widely at individual wellbeing, has the rollout of UC increased anti-depressants descriptions, the use of foodbanks or crime rates? This PhD will result in at least three identified contributions to the economics literature, which will be targeted at top general interest and field journals. In addition, this work will be incorporated into a series of non-technical summary papers which will be released by the JRF and the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) at the University of Strathclyde. Given the substantial public interest in understanding the impacts of the rollout of UC, it is anticipated that the evaluation of this programme outlined will generate significant interest, in particular from the UK Government as they consider further welfare reform. Furthermore, with welfare powers being devolved to the Scottish Parliament, there is scope for action to be taken at a devolved level in response to the evidence base that this study will provide.These questions will be addressed by using a robust empirical approach known as "difference-in-difference regression", which can isolate the effects of the policy from confounding factors (i.e. economic climate, social attitude etc.). This approach is made possible by the fact that UC is being enrolled gradually, thereby providing an opportunity for comparison between 'treated' areas (where UC has been implemented) and 'controlled' areas (UC yet to be implemented).TimetableIn year 1 I will be gaining familiarity with the literature, the empirical methods that will be used and working to construct the key earnings data from the ONS and HMRC microdata (this is anticipated to take between 3 and 6 months). The next 6 months of the PhD will focus on the remaining data collection and the implementation of the empirical strategy for the first paper. By the end of year 1 it is anticipated I will have some initial results for discussion and presentation at the Scottish Graduate Programme PhD conference in January 2020. I will then work to refine these results in response to feedback and produce a draft of their first chapter. The second and third chapters will focus on evaluating the impact of the UC rollout on other, wider, social outcomes such as GP prescribing of antidepressants, foodbank use, and crime. These chapters will be completed in years 2 and 3 respectively.