Political economy of Forecast-Based Action in the context of the 'new humanitarianism' paradigm: a multi-scalar analysis of anticipatory intervention

捐赠者、政府和非政府组织社区在应对气候和“自然”危害方面往往做得不够。传统上，大部分资金是在灾后提供的(Kellet和Caravani，2013年)，2011年非洲之角旱灾的应对情况就是如此，尽管国际社会发出了早期警告，但国际社会未能提前做出反应(Lautze等人，2012年)。然而，近年来出现了一系列旨在先发制人的新方法。这种方法的特点是将预警系统纳入人道主义行动，如基于预测的筹资(FBF)和基于预测的行动(FBA)，转向“按需”气候信息服务，以及伦敦全球灾害保护中心承诺的新型保险工具。这些方法的特点是呼吁“增加人道主义援助和适应干预措施之间的接触”(Eriksen等人2017：1)，并代表着向“新人道主义”的范式转变(Marin和Naess，2017)。综上所述，这一转变代表了各种发展的汇合，例如希望提高气候科学的可用性，对适应和复原力采取更微妙的方法，复原力范式作为人道主义倡议和适应倡议之间的桥梁概念。从政策制定是渐进的、复杂的和以相互竞争的议程为特征的知识(Wolmer等人，2009年)出发，本博士利用苏塞克斯大学和论坛伙伴关系网络的发展研究专业知识，了解肯尼亚金融管理局的运作情况，并将其与上文概述的更广泛的范式转变和倡议联系起来。在问题驱动的政治经济学分析(DFID，2009)之后，将使用利益相关者访谈和权力映射等技术来审查影响FBA在实践中如何实施的行为者、利益、想法和制度。下列研究问题反映了拟议的多标量办法：i)在国家一级，上述范式转变如何与先前存在的发展优先事项和政策进程保持一致？在肯尼亚，权力下放的县级系统使情况变得复杂，这为参与性决策和获得气候融资创造了机会(Barrett，2015)，同时也破坏了政策进程。二)在机构层面，机构受到徒劳行动的感知风险(Coughlan de Perez，2015)或人道主义组织在外交空间内的微妙地位(Marin和Naess，2017：26)的制约程度如何？关于采用FBA的机构面临的挑战，我们有很多需要学习的地方。3)在地方一级，初步研究表明，人道主义行为者对复原力和适应能力的日益重视可能不会减少脆弱性，因为资源往往通过现有的权力结构获得(Mosberg等人)。2017年)。是否通过实施FBA复制了这一点？

Donors, governments and the NGO community often do not do enough to prepare for climate and 'natural' hazards. Traditionally, the bulk of funding has been supplied post-disaster (Kellet and Caravani, 2013), as was the case with the response to the Greater Horn of Africa 2011 drought, where despite early warnings the international community failed to respond in advance (Lautze et al, 2012). However, recent years have seen a suite of new approaches aimed at acting in advance of hazards. This approach is typified by integrating early warning systems into humanitarian actions, such as Forecast-Based Financing (FbF) and Forecast-Based Action (FbA), by a shift to 'on demand' climate information services and by novel insurance tools such as those promised by the London Centre for Global Disaster Protection . These approaches are marked by the call 'for increasing engagement between humanitarian aid and adaptation interventions' (Eriksen et al 2017:1), and represent a paradigm shift towards 'new humanitarianism' (Marin and Naess, 2017). Taken together, this shift represents a confluence of developments such as a desire to improve the usability of climate science, a more nuanced approach to adaptation and resilience, whereby the resilience paradigm serves as a bridging concept between humanitarian and adaptation initiatives. Taking off from the knowledge that policymaking is incremental, complex and characterised by competing agendas (Wolmer et al., 2009), this PhD draws from the development studies expertise at the University of Sussex and the ForPAc network to understand the operationalisation of FbA in Kenya, contextualising this against the broader paradigm shifts and initiatives outlined above. Following a problem-driven political economy analysis (DFID, 2009), techniques such as stakeholder interviewing and power mapping will be used to examine the actors, interests, ideas and institutions that influence how FbA is implemented in practice. The following research questions reflect the proposed multi-scalar approach; i) At a national level, how does the paradigm shift outlined above align with pre-existing development priorities and policy processes? In Kenya, this is complicated by the devolved county system, which has created opportunities for participatory decision-making and access to climate finance (Barrett, 2015), whilst also fracturing the policy process. ii) At an institutional level, how constrained are institutions by the perceived risk of acting in vain (Coughlan de Perez, 2015), or by the delicate positionality of humanitarian organisations within diplomatic spaces (Marin and Naess, 2017: 26)? There is much to be learned about the challenges for institutions adopting FbA. iii) At a local level, initial research suggests that increasing attention to resilience and adaptation among humanitarian actors may not lead to reduced vulnerability because resources tend to be captured through existing power structures (Mosberg et al. 2017). Is this replicated through the implementation of FbA?