Seamless seasonal to sub seasonal forecasts of flood risk analysis using Global Forecasting and Analysis System(GLOFAS) in Tana Basin Kenya

塔纳河全长1000公里，是肯尼亚最长的河流，流经肯尼亚的半干旱和干旱地区。它有5条支流，其中包括西卡河，发源于肯尼亚山和阿伯达尔山脉水塔，向东流经伊西奥洛县，然后转向东南，最后流入印度洋。尽管这条河为周围社区提供了生计，但它通常面临一些极端天气/气候事件，如干旱和洪水事件。在这项博士研究结束时，预计当地居民对洪水预报的吸收将得到改善，由洪水喷口造成的灾害将减少，并解决阻碍相关洪水信息传播的因素。本研究的目标将是(i)评估洪水事件的可预测性，提前时间从几天到几个月不等（ii）探索科学信息在潜在的基于预测的洪水准备行动中的潜在应用。研究将在研究流域的洪水风险管理和准备工作的背景下进行，并将认识到这一点

Tana River which is a 1000 Kilometres and being the longest river in Kenya flows through asemi arid and arid region of Kenya. It has may tributaries which includes Thika Riveroriginates from Mt. Kenya and Aberdares Range water towers and flows eastwards via Isiolocounty and then turns south-east before it drains into Indian Ocean. despite the fact thatthe river provides livelihoods to the surrounding communities, it normally faces some ofthe extremes weather/climate events such as drought and flooding events.At the end of this PhD research, it is expected that the uptake of flood forecasts by thelocal population will have improved and calamities resulting from flood vents will bereduced as well as address the factors that hinders the dissemination of the relevantflood information identified and addressed.Objectives of this research will be to(i) Evaluate the predictability of flood events a seamless lead times of days to months(ii) Explore the potential application of scientific information in potential ForecastBased Action for flood preparedness initiativeThe research will be conducted in the context of , and will be cognizant of the operationof flood risk management and preparedness in the study basin