Making Better Decisions: Policy Modeling-AIDS/Drug Abuse

描述(由申请人提供)：这项建议是由美国医学研究所艾滋病毒预防战略委员会最近的一份报告推动的，该报告倡导使用评估和成本效益框架来做出资源分配决定。该项目旨在通过发展数学和经济模型，促进艾滋病毒和药物滥用预防领域的合理规划和政策制定。为了实现这一目标，研究人员提出了以下具体目标：1.构建生产函数，描述修正风险行为的支出与经验性观察到的风险行为变化之间的关系。2.开发以模型为基础的方法，将艾滋病毒相关干预措施的行为影响转化为具有流行病学意义的结果衡量标准。3.评估如何最好地估计艾滋病毒干预计划的健康结果、经济结果和成本效益。4.评估旨在减缓艾滋病毒和药物滥用蔓延的具体干预措施的效力和成本效益，包括药物滥用治疗方案、减少抗药性艾滋病毒传播的战略以及艾滋病毒咨询、检测和转诊。5.通过审查各种干预措施的效力和成本效益，指导预防战略和社会资源的分配。这包括评估针对流行病学的艾滋病毒预防方案与一般艾滋病毒预防方案的适当性，以及分析其他国家和国际艾滋病毒预防战略。6.审查艾滋病毒和药物滥用领域的政策模式与公共卫生决策之间的关系。拟议的研究将推进艾滋病毒规划和政策建模的最新水平，对有希望的干预措施进行批判性评估，并有助于为将稀缺资源分配给艾滋病毒和药物滥用预防干预措施组合提供科学基础。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal is motivated by the recent report of the Institute of Medicine's Committee on HIV Prevention Strategy in the United States, which advocates the use of evaluation and cost-effectiveness frameworks for resource allocation decisions. This project aims to promote reasoned planning and policy making in the realm of HIV and substance abuse prevention via the development of mathematical and economic models. To achieve this goal, the investigators propose the following specific aims: 1. To construct production functions that characterize the relationship between expenditures to modify risk behaviors and empirically observed changes in those behaviors. 2. To develop model-based methods of translating the behavioral impact of HIV-related interventions into epidemiologically meaningful outcome measures. 3. To assess how best to estimate health outcomes, economic outcomes, and cost-effectiveness of HIV intervention programs. 4. To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of specific interventions aimed at slowing the spread of HIV and drug abuse, including substance abuse treatment programs, strategies to reduce the spread of resistant HIV, and HIV counseling, testing, and referral. 5. To guide prevention strategy and the allocation of societal resources by examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of portfolios of interventions. This includes assessing the appropriateness of epidemiologically targeted versus general HIV prevention programs, as well as analyzing other national and international HIV prevention strategies. 6. To examine the relationship between policy modeling and public health decision making in the areas of HIV and substance abuse. The proposed research will advance the state-of-the art in HIV planning and policy modeling, critically evaluate promising interventions, and help provide the scientific foundation for allocation of scarce resources to portfolios of HIV and substance abuse prevention interventions.