The impact of demand side macroprudential policies on household indebtedness

自2008年危机以来，已经推出了几种政策工具。其中许多工具的新奇之处在于，它们没有收紧银行资本，而是直接附加了家庭债务。这些政策的目标是通过限制信贷增长来实现金融稳定。这一研究的独特之处在于关注家庭而不是总信贷。新政策对家庭的直接影响比银行更具异质性。使用总信用数据隐含地假设所有家庭对这些政策的反应相同，这本质上意味着我们不能全面了解这些工具的影响。信用登记簿包含每个合同(匿名)的所有贷款水平信息。利用这些登记簿中尚未开发的潜力，将更好地理解这些政策如何影响信贷市场的分解。它可以揭示决定家庭是否退出信贷市场的决定性特征，而不是简单地改变信贷需求的家庭。这项研究还旨在研究这些政策如何影响信贷市场和实体经济。预计随着数据集的微观聚焦，可以对信贷增长的影响做出更准确的估计。在研究对实体经济的影响时，该研究旨在使用分位数回归方法来捕捉影响的全部范围。该研究将有助于当前关于宏观审慎政策的讨论，因为它具有家庭焦点。

Since the 2008 crisis, several policy tools have been introduced. The novelty of many of these tools is that instead of tightening bank capital, they tacked household indebtedness directly. The goal of these policies is to achieve financial stability through limiting credit growth.The uniqueness of this research is focusing on households instead of on aggregate credit. The new policies impact households directly who are more heterogenous than banks. Using aggregate credit data implicitly assumes that all households react identically to these policies which inherently means we do not get the full picture of the impact of these tools.A credit register contains all loan level information for each contract (anonymised). Utilising the untapped potential in these registers will give a better understanding of how these policies impact the decomposition of the credit market. It allows to uncover the defining characteristics that determine whether a household drops out of the credit market as opposed to households that simply alter their credit demand.The research also aims to study how the policies impact the credit market and the real economy. It is expected that with the micro focus of the dataset a more accurate estimation of the impact on credit growth can be obtained. When studying the impact on the real economy the research aims to use a quantile regression approach to capture the full spectrum of effects.The research will contribute to the current discourse on macroprudential policy by having a household focus.