Dynamic Analyses of Single Motherhood

描述（由申请人提供）：HD 29550的延续扩展了我们之前对非婚生育动态的研究，进一步探讨了非婚首次生育的情况，包括同居夫妇的生育；通过更深入地研究婚前第一胎之前的过程；通过调查一种方法，女性可以选择在未婚时停止生育。我们比较了婚内和婚外出生的婴儿在社会经济环境中的差异，并询问这些差异在最近几十年是否扩大了。我们从同居父母和已婚父母所生的孩子的角度对比家庭稳定性，并确定可能解释观察到的总体差异的因素。我们建立了从性行为开始到非婚生第一胎的过程模型，包括估计外源协变量对非婚生第一胎患病率的间接影响。我们记录了黑人和白人的非婚生育趋势是如何受到性交开始年龄的降低和结婚年龄的增加的影响的。我们利用在多个波中收集的母亲和儿童的异常丰富的数据来源来检查母亲对后代进入性活动的预测是否受到后代特征的调节。我们比较了已婚、同居和单身女性的胎次和持续时间特定的避孕绝育率，以研究同居和单身女性在未婚时可能选择停止生育的一种方式。我们使用一个连续时间竞争风险风险框架，这将允许我们对女性的非随机选择进行建模，分为单身、同居和婚姻状态。在可行的情况下，我们比较了多个数据来源的结果，包括3月和6月的当前人口调查、1979年全国青年纵向调查以及1988年和1995年全国家庭增长调查。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This continuation of HD 29550 extends our previous studies of the dynamics of nonmarital fertility by inquiring further into the circumstances surrounding a nonmarital first birth, including births to cohabiting couples; by delving more deeply into the processes prior to a premarital first birth; and by opening inquiry into one means by which women may choose to cease childbearing while unmarried. We compare differences in the socioeconomic circumstances of infants born within and outside of marriage and ask if these differences have widened in recent decades. We contrast family stability from the perspective of children born to cohabiting and married parents and identify factors that may explain observed gross differentials. We model the progression from onset of sexual activity to a nonmarital first birth, including estimation of indirect effects of exogenous covariates on nonmarital first birth prevalence. We document how trends in nonmarital fertility for blacks and whites may have been affected by decreases in age at onset of sexual activity intercourse and by increases in age at entry into marriage. We exploit an unusually rich source of data on mothers and children gathered at multiple waves to examine if maternal predictors of offspring entry into sexual activity are mediated by offspring characteristics. We compare parity- and duration-specific rates of contraceptive sterilization for married, cohabiting, and single women to study one means by which cohabiting and single woman may choose to cease childbearing while unmarried. We use a continuous-time competing-risk hazard framework that will permit us to model the nonrandom selection of women into single, cohabiting, and marital statuses. Where feasible, we compare results across multiple data sources, including the March and June Current Population Surveys, the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the 1988 and 1995 National Surveys of Family Growth.