Predicting the response of endangered sea turtles to a changing climate

预测物种分布将如何受到全球气候变化的影响，是保护受威胁种群的基础。高度亲生的物种可以被认为特别容易受到气候变化的影响，因为它们的分布仅限于对生活史特征(如繁殖)至关重要的单一地点。如果气候变化将物种范围从出生时的筑巢地点转移到无法生存的地方，这可能会产生重大的影响。在这里，我将重点研究佛得角斑头海龟(Caretta Aretta)的种群，以调查一个高度友好的物种对气候变化的反应。具体地说，我会找出推动海龟迁徙的主要内在和外在因素，以及它们在产卵季节的分布。此外，我将对这些运动模式进行数学描述，并将它们放入一个空间上明确的预测模型中。为此，我将建立一个基于个体的机械模型，我将用它来模拟目前和未来气候条件下佛得角筑巢海龟的分布情况。最后，我将利用关于海龟运动的大量文献，将我生成的模型外推到全球水平，并生成关于全球所有海龟假山的分布和生存能力的预测。

Predicting how the distribution of species will be affected by global climate change is fundamental for the conservation of threatened populations. Highly philopatric species can be considered disproportionately vulnerable to climate change, as their distribution is restricted to a single location essential for life history traits such as reproduction. This may have significant ramifications should climate change shift species range away from natal nesting grounds on render nesting sites unviable. Here, I will focus on the Cabo Verde loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) population, to investigate the responses of a highly philopatric species to climate change. Specifically, I will identify the primary intrinsic and extrinsic factors driving sea turtle movements and consequent distribution during their nesting season. Furthermore, I will mathematically characterise those movement patterns and place them into a spatially explicit predictive model. To this end, I will produce an individual-based mechanistic model, which I will use to generate simulated distributions of nesting turtles in Cabo Verde under current and future climatic conditions. Finally, I will utilize the extensive literature available regarding sea turtle movement to extrapolate my generated model to a global level and generate predictions regarding the distribution and viability of all global sea turtle rockeries.