The response of the Antarctic ice sheet to stratospheric aerosol geoengineering and carbon dioxide removal

海平面上升是人为气候变化造成的最严重问题之一，使沿海人口面临风暴潮、海岸侵蚀和海啸的更高风险。气专委非常相信，冰川和冰盖是SLR的主要贡献者，而且无论遵循哪种排放情景，SLR预计都将持续到22世纪。因此，已经提出了更戏剧性的措施，如地球工程，这是一种刻意操纵地球系统某一方面的行为，以减轻人为变暖的影响。地球工程学的建议包括太阳辐射管理和二氧化碳去除。如果要实施地球工程，就必须对其对南极冰盖的影响进行严格评估，南极冰盖是最重要的SLR贡献者之一。该项目将根据CMIP6、GeoMIP和CDR-MIP档案的输出，将BISICLES冰盖模式运行到2300，为每个档案生成集合。然后，将为每个集合安装高斯过程仿真，允许执行数千次模型运行，并生成各种地球工程和非地球工程场景下AIS对SLR的贡献的概率预测。

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most significant problems resulting from anthropogenic climate change, exposing coastal populations to higher risks of storm surges, coastal erosion, and tsunamis. The IPCC has very high confidence that glaciers and ice sheets are the dominant contributor to SLR and that SLR is projected to continue well into the 22nd century regardless of which emissions scenario is followed. Consequently, more dramatic measures have been proposed such as geoengineering, the deliberate act of manipulating an aspect of the earth system to alleviate the impacts of anthropogenic warming. Geoengineering proposals include solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal. If geoengineering is to be implemented, then rigorous assessment of its impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), one of the most important SLR contributors, must be undertaken. This project will run the BISICLES ice sheet model to 2300 forced by output from the CMIP6, GeoMIP and CDR-MIP archives, generating an ensemble for each. A Gaussian Process Emulation will then be fitted for each ensemble, allowing thousands of model runs to be performed and the generation of probabilistic projections of the AIS' contribution to SLR under various geoengineered and non-geoengineered scenarios.