Assessing the Interaction Between the Yield Curve, the Business Cycle, and the Development of Central Banking in 19th Century Britain

近几十年来，收益率曲线倒挂（即短期债券收益率高于长期债券收益率）通常发生在经济衰退之前，这一事实引起了人们的广泛关注。然而，对于收益率曲线波动与19世纪英国资本市场发展和经济周期等重要话题之间的关系，几乎没有前人的分析。我建议研究19世纪英国市场债券收益率的波动，收集比目前可用的更详细的新收益率曲线数据。我希望评估收益率曲线在那个世纪波动或倒挂的程度，尤其是在1825年、1847年、1866年和1890年等英国重大金融危机之前和期间。我希望通过收益率曲线波动的时机和变化程度，不仅可以洞察英国资本市场的发展，还可以洞察英国央行的发展及其权力和政策目标。我还希望分析收益率曲线波动的时间在多大程度上反映了关键商业周期理论的预测，特别是那些强调资本市场和利率的理论，如货币过度投资理论（Hayek 1933）。

Much attention has recently been paid to the fact that yield curve inversions (i.e. higher yields on short-term than long-term bonds) have typically preceded economic downturns in recent decades. However, almost no prior analysis exists of the relation between yield curve fluctuationsand the significant topics of capital market development and business cycles in 19th century Britain. I propose to research the fluctuation of bond yields on British markets during the 19th century, assembling new and more detailed yield curve data than is currently available. I hope to assess the extent to which yield curves fluctuated or inverted that century, especially before and during major British financial crises such as the Panics of 1825, 1847, 1866, and 1890. I expect the timing and changing extent of yield curve fluctuations could provide insights into not only the development of British capital markets, but also into the development of the Bank of England and its powers and policy goals. I also hope to analyse how far the timing of yield curve fluctuations reflected the predictions of key business cycle theories, especially those which emphasise capital markets and interest rates, such as the Monetary Overinvestment Theory (Hayek 1933).