Pathways to Realistic Impact Modelling in Estuarine Areas

河口是陆地和海洋环境的唯一连接点;因此，它们对全球水和养分循环、碳储存、生态系统复原力以及粮食安全、人类健康和社会福祉等公共服务至关重要。由于受到陆地和海洋过程的制约，河口特别容易受到气候变化的影响。对于英国来说，预计本世纪海平面将上升1米，加上更潮湿的冬季将改变河流行为-大大增加洪水风险和淡水，营养物质，沉积物，微塑料和有害细菌的陆地通量海洋。洪水易发地区的城市发展和集水区土地利用的强化（例如砍伐森林）可进一步改变河流流量/负荷特性，减轻风险。因此，迫切需要更好地了解这些复杂的综合危害，以采取沿海抗灾举措，例如植树、蓄洪或废水管理。

Estuaries act as the sole connectors of terrestrial and marine environments; consequently, they are crucial for global water and nutrient cycling, carbon storage, ecosystem resilience and public services such as food security, human health and social wellbeing. Being constrained by both terrestrial and marine processes, estuaries are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For the UK, a sea-level rise of up to 1m is expected this century, together with wetter winters that will change river behaviour - drastically increasing flood risk and terrestrial fluxes of freshwater, nutrients, sediments, microplastics and harmful bacteria to the ocean. Urban development of flood-prone areas and intensification of catchment land use (e.g. deforestation) can further alter river flow/load behaviours and extenuate the risks. An improved understanding these complex combination hazards is therefore urgently needed for coastal resilience initiatives, e.g. tree-planting, flood-storage or wastewater management.