Dynamic Analyses of Single Motherhood

描述（申请人提供）：HD 29550的延续扩展了我们以前对非婚生育动力学的研究，进一步探讨了非婚生育的情况，包括同居夫妇的生育;更深入地研究了婚前生育前的过程;并开始调查女性可能选择未婚停止生育的一种方式。我们比较了婚内和婚外出生的婴儿在社会经济环境方面的差异，并询问这些差异在最近几十年是否有所扩大。我们从同居和已婚父母所生子女的角度对比家庭稳定性，并确定可能解释观察到的总差异的因素。我们建立了从性活动开始到非婚头胎的进展模型，包括估计外生协变量对非婚头胎患病率的间接影响。我们记录了黑人和白人的非婚生育率趋势如何受到性活动开始时年龄下降和结婚年龄增加的影响。我们利用异常丰富的数据来源，母亲和儿童收集在多个波检查，如果后代进入性活动的母亲预测介导的后代特征。我们比较了已婚、同居和单身女性的避孕绝育率和特定时间的避孕绝育率，以研究同居和单身女性在未婚时可能选择停止生育的一种方法。我们使用一个连续时间的竞争风险的框架，这将使我们能够模拟非随机选择的妇女到单身，同居，和婚姻状态。在可行的情况下，我们比较了多个数据源的结果，包括3月和6月的当前人口调查，1979年的全国青年纵向调查，以及1988年和1995年的全国家庭增长调查。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This continuation of HD 29550 extends our previous studies of the dynamics of nonmarital fertility by inquiring further into the circumstances surrounding a nonmarital first birth, including births to cohabiting couples; by delving more deeply into the processes prior to a premarital first birth; and by opening inquiry into one means by which women may choose to cease childbearing while unmarried. We compare differences in the socioeconomic circumstances of infants born within and outside of marriage and ask if these differences have widened in recent decades. We contrast family stability from the perspective of children born to cohabiting and married parents and identify factors that may explain observed gross differentials. We model the progression from onset of sexual activity to a nonmarital first birth, including estimation of indirect effects of exogenous covariates on nonmarital first birth prevalence. We document how trends in nonmarital fertility for blacks and whites may have been affected by decreases in age at onset of sexual activity intercourse and by increases in age at entry into marriage. We exploit an unusually rich source of data on mothers and children gathered at multiple waves to examine if maternal predictors of offspring entry into sexual activity are mediated by offspring characteristics. We compare parity- and duration-specific rates of contraceptive sterilization for married, cohabiting, and single women to study one means by which cohabiting and single woman may choose to cease childbearing while unmarried. We use a continuous-time competing-risk hazard framework that will permit us to model the nonrandom selection of women into single, cohabiting, and marital statuses. Where feasible, we compare results across multiple data sources, including the March and June Current Population Surveys, the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and the 1988 and 1995 National Surveys of Family Growth.