Exact Inference Software for Correlated Categorical Data

描述(由申请人提供)：这是第一阶段SBIR建议，用于开发对相关分类数据执行小样本精确推理的计算机软件。这样的数据现在在许多生物医学研究领域都很常见，例如遗传学、眼科和畸形学。此外，准确的方法在任何商业套餐中都不可用，因此迫切需要准确的推断。到第二阶段结束时，我们计划开发工具，用于分析具有相关的二元和相关多变量响应的小数据集和大数据集。这套工具将计算点估计和可信区间，以及执行假设检验，为多变量二元反应的几个基于可能性的模型。在这个第一阶段的工作中，我们将1.建立一个具有简单用户界面的独立程序，包括一个数据编辑器和一个菜单来指定数据的固定协变量和相关结构；2.在这个计算机程序中实现 A)分层有序聚类二项总体的精确趋势检验， B)测试集群的准确程序 C)多结果数据的精确趋势检验此外，我们还将研究基于网络的蒙特卡罗方法对这些模型进行拟合的可行性。由于目前尚无商业统计软件用于此类方法的精确推断，所产生的模块将填补分类数据分析统计工具的一个重要空白，并将被纳入Cytel的旗舰软件包StatXact和LogXact的新版本中，我们还将在广泛使用的统计软件包SAS中将所有这些工具作为SAS程序加以实施。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This is a Phase I SBIR proposal for the development of computer software performing small sample exact inference for correlated categorical data. Such data are now common in many, biomedical areas of research, such as genetics, ophthalmology, and teratology. In addition, exact methods are not available in any commercial package and are badly needed for accurate inference. By the end of Phase II we plan to develop tools for analyzing small as well as large data sets with correlated binary and correlated multivariate responses. This set of tools will compute point estimates and confidence intervals, as well as perform hypothesis tests, for several likelihood-based models for a multivariate binary response. In this Phase I effort, we will 1. build a stand-alone program with a simple user interface, including a data editor and a menu to specify fixed covariates and correlation structure of the data; 2. implement within this computer program a) an exact trend test for stratified ordered clustered binomial populations, b) an exact procedure to test for clustering c) an exact trend test for multiple outcome data In addition, we will investigate the feasibility of network-based Monte Carlo methods for fitting such models. Because there exists no commercial statistical software for such methods for exact inference, the resulting module will fill an important gap in statistical tools for categorical data analysis, and will be incorporated into new versions of the StatXact and LogXact, Cytel's flagship software packages, we shall also implement all these tools in widely used statistical package SAS as a SAS procedure.