Stress-testing global infrastructure networks to synchronous flood events

民用基础设施，如建筑、道路和电力网络，构成了社会的支柱，支持着人类的福祉（Thacker等人，2019）。鉴于社会对基础设施系统的高度依赖，破坏给全球带来了沉重的经济负担，自1980年以来，洪水造成的损失达1.092亿美元（Munich Re, 2019）。在人口增长和气候变化导致极端天气可能性增加的背景下，确保基础设施系统抵御冲击的能力正成为一项日益紧迫的任务（Winsemius等，2016；Forzieri等，2018；Hall等，2019）。然而，现有针对洪水造成基础设施破坏的大规模研究（Hirabayashi, 2013; Winsemius, et ., 2013; Koks, et al., 2019b）受到两个隐含假设的严重限制：1)洪水事件在空间上相互独立发生；2)一项资产失败的后果是孤立的单一资产，而不考虑网络效应。这对我们理解基础设施系统的最坏危险情况具有重大意义；例如，同时发生的洪水可能导致大范围的损失，使保险索赔无法承受（Jongman等人，2014）。为了系统地识别易受影响的资产和目标适应资金，基础设施系统应该针对大量现实同步洪水事件进行压力测试2。

Civil infrastructures, such as buildings, roads and electricity networks, form the backbone of society and support human wellbeing (Thacker, et al., 2019). Given society's strong dependence on infrastructure systems, disruptions impose a heavy economic burden globally, with floods accounting for $1,092 billion in losses since 1980 (Munich Re, 2019). Ensuring infrastructure systems are resilient to shocks is becoming an increasingly urgent task in the context of growing populations and heightened likelihoods of extreme weather due to climate change (Winsemius, et al., 2016; Forzieri, et al., 2018; Hall, et al., 2019). However, existing large-scale studies that focus on infrastructure damages caused by flooding (Hirabayashi, 2013; Winsemius, et al., 2013; Koks, et al., 2019b) are severely limited by two implicit assumptions: 1) that flood events occur independently from each other across space; and 2) that consequences of one asset failing is isolated to that single asset, without accounting for network effects1. This has major implications for our understanding of what the worst-case hazard scenarios are for infrastructure systems; for example, simultaneous floods may induce widespread losses that overwhelm insurance claims (Jongman, et al., 2014). In order to systematically identify vulnerable assets and target adaptation funds, infrastructure systemsshould be stress-tested2 against a large ensemble of realistic synchronous flood events.