Real-time monitoring and forecasting of coastal erosion

海岸侵蚀威胁着近岸基础设施、个人财产和人们的生计。由于预计海平面上升，以及风暴事件的强度和频率增加，预计未来几十年与海岸侵蚀相关的风险将会加剧（UKCP18）。尽管存在这些风险，沿海地区仍然是发展的重点，因此需要一个证据基础，以确定哪些资产在哪些海岸线内最容易受到侵蚀，以便进行战略规划。我们对未来海岸变化作出可靠预测的能力依赖于对海岸过程的扎实理论认识，以及在已知强迫条件下过去海岸变化的记录。通过对历史衰退率的外推，苏格兰海岸周围未来的海岸侵蚀将集中在全国范围内。然而，对海岸线变化的历史观测在时间上是稀少的。对未来海岸侵蚀的预测需要使用基于过程的数值模式，这些模式由观测数据校准和验证。该项目旨在将实时监测和建模结合起来，开发一个针对极端环境条件下风暴引发的海岸侵蚀事件的连续预警系统。

Coastal erosion threatens nearshore infrastructure, individual properties, and people's livelihoods. Risks associated with coastal erosion are expected to increase in severity in the coming decades due to anticipated sea level rise, and the increased intensity and frequency of storm events (UKCP18). Despite these risks, coastal regions remain a focus for development and thus there is need for an evidence base to establish which assets within which coastlines are most vulnerable to erosion for strategic planning purposes. Our ability to make reliable predictions of future coastal change is dependent on a solid theoretical understanding of coastal processes coupled with records of past coastal change under known forcing conditions. Future coastal erosion around the coast of Scotland has focused at the national scale by extrapolation of historical recession rates. However, historical observations of shoreline changes are temporally sparse. Prediction of future coastal erosion requires the use of process-based numerical models that are calibrated and validated by observational data. This project aims to couple real time monitoring and modelling to develop a continuous early warning system for storm-induced coastal erosion events in response to extreme environmental conditions.