Development of risk-based investment decision making tools that account for predictive model uncertainty in Water Framework Directive studies

该项目将涉及博士生首先在案例研究中建模基线解决方案，然后根据不同程度的不确定性开发解决方案，因此不是单一的建议解决方案，而是提出不同程度的失败风险的不同解决方案。这项任务的一部分还将涉及开发适当的基于统计的工具，以量化模拟不同汇水过程的子模型中的不确定性。然后需要将这些单独的过程不确定性汇总起来，以了解WFD评估中使用的关键水力和水质参数的不确定性。然后，学生将采访决策者，了解他们在做出投资决策时如何应对模型的不确定性和不同程度的失败风险。这一阶段的工作将用于调查个人风险厌恶在投资决策方面的作用。将开发一个框架，将模型的不确定性纳入客观的投资决策策略。该框架将应用于一系列不同的集水区，以证明符合WFD的解决方案的投资决策的潜在成本变化。在与多家水务公司的合作下，博士生将开发指导文件，包括不确定性量化，作为公认的WFD研究工作流程的一部分，以及不同的决策策略。

The project would involve the PhD student first modelling a baseline solution in a case study, and then develop solutions based on different levels of uncertainty, so instead of a single proposed solution, there would be different solutions with different levels of risk of failure proposed. Part of this task will also involve the development of appropriate statistically based tools to quantify uncertainty in the sub-models simulating different catchment process. These individual process uncertainties then need to be aggregated to understand in the uncertainty in key hydraulic and water quality parameters used in WFD assessments. The student would then interview decision makers regarding to how they would react to model uncertainty and different levels of risk of failure when making investment decisions. This phase of the work would be used to investigate the role of personal risk adverseness in terms of investment decision making. A framework would be developed to incorporate model uncertainty into an objective investment decision making strategy.This framework would be applied to a range of different catchments to evidence the potential cost variation of investment decisions for WFD compliant solutions. In collaboration with a number of water companies the PhD student would then develop guidance documents on including uncertainty quantification as part of an accepted WFD study workflow, as well as on different decision making strategies.