PREDICTORS OF ADOLESCENT ECSTASY USE IN NATIONAL SURVEY

描述(由申请人提供)：在过去的十年中，摇头丸的使用在美国和其他国家的流行率有所上升。特别是在青少年和年轻人中。预测未来青春期摇头丸使用的潜在决定因素还没有得到充分的研究。具体地说，缺乏旨在控制时间序列和估计因素预测摇头丸使用风险增加的程度的纵向研究。为了解决这些差距，拟议的研究旨在：1)测试青少年使用摇头丸的流行率和发生率是否随着人口和地理变量的变化而变化；2)测试既往的越轨行为、先前的高感觉寻求分数和先前的其他药物使用是否预测青少年随后使用摇头丸；3)测试以前父母监测的低水平和同伴使用摇头丸的高水平是否预测青少年随后使用摇头丸；4)测试青少年对摇头丸使用的态度和信念的变化，以及测试暴露在反毒品媒体运动中是否可能影响青少年对摇头丸使用的态度。来自全国父母和青年调查(NSPY)的纵向数据将被用来解决这些目标。NSPY是一项流行病学研究，代表了美国青少年人口(9-18岁)。在初步的探索性数据分析之后，我们将通过横截面和纵向Logistic回归模型分析数据，以解决每个特定目标。首先，我们将估计摇头丸使用率和发生率与人口统计学(年龄、性别、种族/民族)的关系，然后，我们将使用交替Logistic回归来检验是否有证据表明青少年摇头丸使用按地区聚集。使用纵向回归边际模型，我们将检验以前的越轨行为、高感觉寻求得分和以前高水平的其他药物使用是否预测青少年随后使用摇头丸，以及检验较低的父母监控水平和高水平的同伴使用摇头丸是否预测青少年随后使用摇头丸。Logistic回归模型将测试青少年对摇头丸使用态度和信念的变化，并测试暴露在反毒品媒体运动中是否影响青少年对摇头丸使用的态度。最后，我们相信，我们的研究将为公众健康做出贡献，以更好地了解摇头丸使用的潜在决定因素。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): During the past decade the prevalence of ecstasy use has increased in the U.S. and in other countries. particularly among adolescents and young adults. Potential determinants that predict future ecstasy use in adolescence are understudied. Specifically, there is a lack of longitudinal research designed to control temporal sequencing and estimate the extent to which factors predict increased risk of ecstasy use. To address these gaps, the proposed study aims to: 1) test if the prevalence and incidence of ecstasy use in adolescence vary in relation to demographic and geographic variables over time; 2) test whether previous deviant behaviors, previous high sensation-seeking scores and prior other drug use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents; 3) test whether previous low levels of parent monitoring and high levels of peer ecstasy use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents; 4) test for changes in attitudes and beliefs towards ecstasy use among adolescents and test whether exposure to an anti-drug media campaign might have influenced adolescents' attitudes towards ecstasy use. Longitudinal data from the National Survey of Parents and Youth (NSPY), an epidemiologic study representative of the adolescent U.S. population (9-18 yeas old) will be used to address these aims. After initial exploratory data analyses, we will analyze data through cross-sectional and longitudinal logistic regression models to address each of the specific aims. First, we will estimate associations of prevalence and incidence of ecstasy use with demographics (age, gender, race/ethnicity), then, we will use alternating logistic regression to test whether there is evidence of clustering of adolescent ecstasy use by region of the country. Using longitudinal regression marginal models, we will test whether previous deviant behaviors, high sensation-seeking scores and high levels of prior other drug use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents, as well as examine if lower levels of parent monitoring and high levels of peer ecstasy use predict subsequent ecstasy use among adolescents. Logistic regression models will test for changes in attitudes and beliefs towards ecstasy use among adolescents and to test whether exposure to an anti-drug media campaign influenced adolescents' attitudes towards ecstasy use. Finally, we believe that our study will bring public health contributions to better understand potential determinants of ecstasy use.