How do periods of instability influence government's commitment to the national social protection schemes in sub-Saharan Africa?

本研究项目的总体目的是增加围绕社会保护实施的不断增长的知识基础，以及它如何与现有的政治和社会结构相互作用，并受到挑战。具体而言，这项研究的目的是确定不稳定对现任管理当局致力于制定长期社会保护战略以及有效执行和巩固战略中概述的方案的影响程度。这个问题是在撒哈拉以南非洲精英和政治结构的背景下提出的，这将指导分析考虑政治和非政治因素将如何影响结果。作为进一步的分析维度，该项目旨在确定不稳定与社会保护承诺之间的关系是否在不同的政治和社会结构中有所不同，并影响政策的持久性。在此之前，一部分研究将集中于不稳定和对社会保护的承诺的概念的定义，并将审查可能影响它们的因素，无论是一般的还是其重要性的因素。主要概念和文献：本提案审查的主要概念是社会保护，其广泛定义为减少贫困和脆弱性以及帮助提高其管理与老年、失业或一般与贫困有关问题有关的社会经济风险的能力的方案。关于这些方案在撒哈拉以南非洲的发展如何与不稳定条件下的不同政治结构相互作用的讨论将以各种理论框架为指导，包括政治解决理论和历史制度主义。这些框架将作为发展理论模型的基础，该模型随后将为定量和定性分析中审查的假设和因果机制提供信息。推动不稳定对社会保护政策和持续承诺产生影响的机制包括关键节点的出现以及它如何影响时间范围和意识形态。方法：将采用顺序解释性混合方法设计来分析SSA的政治和精英定居结构背景下的不稳定性与社会保护承诺之间的关系。简而言之，第一阶段需要使用定量方法来检查在文献综述中确定的观察到的和未观察到的变量之间可能的关系。这项工作的主要目的是查明因果关系的方向和程度，并将密切审查数据和任何新出现的趋势。目前，这个阶段提出了一个结构方程模型，因为它将允许检查多个因变量和未观察到的变量。随后的工作将以第一阶段的结果为指导，第一阶段将通过统计分析确定有关国家。建议在此基础上选定的国家将作为一项密集的定性小样本研究的分析单位。这个部分的主要分析方法是过程追踪，它包括绘制出行动和事件的演变，以调查和提供因果因素之间相互作用的证据。虽然它将涉及使用各种二手资源，但将在这些国家进行实地工作，以便获得第一手资料和证据，以巩固或反驳所提出的任何假设。

The overarching purpose of this research project is to add to the growing knowledge base surrounding the implementation of social protection and how this interacts with, and is challenged by, the existing political and social structure. Specifically, this research aims to determine the extent of the influence of instability on an incumbent governing authority's commitment to developing a long-term social protection strategy and the effective implementation and entrenchment of programmes outlined in the strategy. This question is framed in the context of elite and political structures in sub-Saharan Africa, which will guide the analysis towards the consideration of how both political and non-political agents will influence the outcome. As a further dimension of analysis, the project aims to ascertain whether the relationship between instability and commitment to social protection differs across various political and social structures and affects policy persistence. Prior to this, a portion of the research will be focused on the definition of the concepts of instability and commitment to social protection and will examine the factors which may influence them, both generally and in terms of their significance.Key Concepts and Literature:The key concept examined in this proposal is social protection, defined widely as programmes to reduce poverty and vulnerability and to aid in enhancing their ability to manage the socio-economic risks associated with old-age, unemployment or general poverty-related issues. The discussion of how the development of these programmes in sub-Saharan Africa interacts with different political structures under conditions of instability will be guided by various theoretical frameworks, including political settlements theory and historical institutionalism. Such frameworks will serve as the basis for developing a theoretical model, which will subsequently inform the hypotheses and causal mechanisms examined in the quantitative and qualitative analysis. Mechanisms driving the effect of instability on social protection policies and continued commitment include the emergence of critical junctures and how it influences time horizons and ideology. Methodology:A sequential explanatory mixed methods design will be used to analyse the relationship between instability and commitment to social protection in the context of political and elite settlement structures in SSA. In short, the first stage entails the use of a quantitative method to examine possible relationships between observed and unobserved variables identified in the literature review. Primarily, this will aim to identify cause and effect linkages, both in terms of their direction and magnitude, and will involve close examination of the data and any emerging trends. At present, a structural equation model is proposed for this stage, as it will allow for the examination of multiple dependent variables and unobserved variables. Subsequent work will be guided by the results of the first stage, where countries of interest will be identified by the statistical analysis. It is proposed that the countries selected on this basis will be the units of analysis for an intensive qualitative small sample study. The primary method of analysis in this component is process-tracing, which involves mapping out the evolution of actions and events to investigate and provide evidence of interactions between causal elements. Whilst it will involve the use of a variety of secondary resources, fieldwork will be undertaken in these countries in order to obtain first-hand accounts and evidence to solidify or counteract any hypotheses proposed.