Accomplice or Spoiler? - Assessing the Impact of Radical Flanks on Nonviolent Resistance Movements by Scrutinising their Emergence and Level of Integr

最近的研究经验表明，非暴力抵抗往往比暴力抵抗更有效。然而，在评估有效性时，暴力和非暴力争论之间的界定和交集仍然没有理论化。我的项目试图通过调查使用不同（非）暴力策略的运动派别来系统地分析这种交叉点。准确地说，我将仔细研究所谓的“激进侧翼”对主要非暴力运动的影响，看看它们的出现、融合程度和消亡。因此，这项研究将解决为什么非暴力运动中的暴力表现出截然不同的影响的难题，从有利于运动，改善实现目标的前景，到适得其反，破坏运动的动员和对-à-vis政府的杠杆作用。通过采用混合方法设计，该项目将在三个“不同案例”（南非、赞比亚、科索沃）中确定聚合策略背后的微观层面决策过程，并针对大n数据集测试新出现的假设。定性地，我将通过咨询不同的数据来源（进行采访，档案来源，报纸文章）来进行过程追踪，概括前活动家的决策过程。定量地，通过网络分析，我将展示不同的派系如何相互关联。使用潜在空间分析，它将衡量对运动的影响是否取决于“激进侧翼”和温和派系（整合水平）之间的关系，当派系追求相同的目标时，表明成功的结果（例如民主化），当派系的目标明显分歧时，表明失败（例如政府镇压）。除了学术上的好奇心，该项目还具有政策意义，增加了冲突动态的可预测性和政治危机期间的及时干预。在这个研究领域越来越多地看到计量经济学模型和机器学习工具，我的微观层面的见解可以进一步改善预测模型的参数。拟议的项目有助于在ESRC的政治科学和国际研究主题范围内的有争议的政治和政治暴力领域。

Recent research has shown empirically that nonviolent resistance is often more effective than violent resistance. Yet, when assessing the effectiveness, the delineation and intersection between violent and nonviolent contention remain undertheorized. My project seeks to analyse this intersection systematically by investigating movement factions that employ varying (non)violent tactics. Precisely, I will scrutinise the impact of so-called 'radical flanks' on predominantly nonviolent movements, looking at their emergence, level of integration, and demise. The study will thus address the puzzle of why violence within nonviolent movements shows starkly diverging impacts, from benefitting movements, improving the prospects of reaching their goals, to backfiring on movements, undermining their mobilisation and leverage vis-à-vis the government. By employing a mixed-methods design, the project will both identify micro-level decision-making processes behind converging tactics in three 'diverse cases' (South Africa, Zambia, Kosovo) and test emerging hypotheses against large-N datasets. Qualitatively, I will engage in process-tracing through consulting varying data sources (conducting interviews, archival sources, newspaper articles), recapitulating the decision-making processes of former activists. Quantitatively, through network analysis, I will show how different factions relate to each other. Using latent space analysis, it will be measured whether the impact on the movement varies depending on the relation between 'radical flanks' and moderate factions (level of integration), suggesting successful outcomes (e.g. democratisation) when factions pursue the same goals, and failure (e.g. government repression) when factions' goals starkly diverge. Besides scholarly curiosity, this project holds policy implications, adding to the predictability of conflict dynamics and timely interventions during political crises. Increasingly seeing econometric models and machine learning tools in this research field, my micro-level insights can furthermore improve the parameters for prediction models. The proposed project contributes to the field of contentious politics and political violence within the ESRC subject of political science and international studies.