Accelerating the net zero transition: the case of whole house retrofit

根据其气候变化委员会的建议，英国成为七国集团中第一个采用具有法律约束力的目标，即到2050年实现温室气体净零排放的国家。实现净零需要在短时间内采取激进和变革性的行动，这种规模和速度的能源系统转型是没有先例的。如何加快转型是一个关键的学术和政策问题。尽管实现1.5摄氏度目标的窗口很小，而且很快就会关闭，但研究人员仍然对加速实现持乐观态度。(2020)确定政策努力需要解决的加速可持续性过渡的五个挑战：1)整个系统的变化，2)多个系统之间的相互作用，3)现有行业的衰落和阻力，4)消费者和社会实践的重大变化，以及5)治理的日益复杂。我的研究将把这个理解加速的新框架应用到英国住宅的整体翻新案例中。如果住房存量不能近乎完全脱碳，英国的气候变化目标就无法实现。占英国温室气体排放量17%的建筑排放必须在2050年达到净零排放，但自2015年以来，减排一直停滞不前。与更广泛的净零过渡一样，国内的翻新需要在短时间内大规模进行：在未来10-15年内，所有2900万户英国家庭都需要升级到至少C级的能源性能证书。这让人们注意到，加速向净零过渡的核心是一种社会变革，而不仅仅是一种技术或经济变革。除了巨大的减排潜力外，改装住宅还能带来显著的共同利益，如减少能源账单、解决燃料贫困、为NHS节省大量资金、创造就业机会，以及降低能源过渡的成本。尽管有明显的好处，但英国政府的政策迄今未能实现住宅翻新所需的大规模普及。为了达到脱碳目标，人们断言有必要对住宅进行全面的“全屋”改造。这涉及到采取多种措施，如绝缘、防风、通风、低碳供暖系统和太阳能光伏等微型发电，将整个家庭视为一个系统，而不是一套互不相连的部件。关于Markard等人提出的挑战，这一办法将需要：1)协调创新在家庭内部的传播(绝缘、热泵、微型发电)；2)寻求热能、电力和运输系统之间的协同作用；3)积极淘汰天然气/石油锅炉和相关行业等技术；4)大幅增加消费者参与度，并在净零家庭中改变社会习俗；5)各种规模的协调和适应性治理。对于那些参与整个房屋翻新的人来说，这将代表着行为者制定、处理和提供翻新干预措施的方式发生了阶段性变化。特别是，将加速理论付诸实施意味着创建持续的资金流、发展供应链和技能充足的劳动力、改造的质量控制以及公共参与方式的转变。对于在其他地方被确定为可持续发展转型关键行为者的地方当局来说，这将需要围绕翻新的系统、做法和惯例进行反身性学习。这项研究的目的是：a)通过对全屋翻新案例的审查，提出关于可持续转型加速的理论。b)提供关于如何启用或限制转型加速的实际经验见解。C)通过与参与全部门翻新治理的主要利益攸关方合作，创造有意义的影响

Following the advice of its Committee on Climate Change, the UK became the first G7 economy to adopt a legally binding target of reaching net zero GHG emissions by 2050. Achieving net zero requires radical and transformative action in a short timeframe with no prior precedent for an energy system transformation at this scale and speed. How transitions can be accelerated is a key academic and policy question. Although the window for achieving the 1.5 degrees C goal is small and rapidly closing, there remains some optimism among researchers that acceleration can be achieved.Markard et al. (2020) identify five challenges to the acceleration of sustainability transitions that policy efforts need to address: 1) whole systems change, 2) interaction between multiple systems, 3) decline and resistance of existing industries, 4) major changes in consumer and social practices and 5) the increasing complexity of governance. My research will apply this novel framework for understanding acceleration to the case of whole-house retrofits of UK homes. The UK's climate change targets will not be met without the near-complete decarbonisation of the housing stock. Emissions from buildings, which account for 17% of UK GHG emissions, must reach net zero in 2050, but reductions have stalled since 2015. As with the net zero transition more generally, domestic retrofits need to happen on a mass scale and in a short timeframe: all 29 million UK homes need to be upgraded to an Energy Performance Certificate of at least C in the next 10-15 years. This brings to focus the fact that accelerating the transition to net zero is at its core a social and not just a technological or economic transformation.Apart from the vast emissions reductions potential, retrofitting homes offers significant co-benefits, such as reducing energy bills, tackling fuel poverty, major savings for the NHS, creating jobs, and lowering the costs of the energy transition. Despite the obvious benefits, UK government policy has so far failed to achieve the mass uptake of residential retrofit needed. In order to reach decarbonisation targets, the necessity of a comprehensive 'whole-house' approach to residential retrofit has been asserted. This involves the adoption of multiple measures such as insulation, draught proofing, ventilation, low carbon heating systems and electricity microgeneration like solar PV, treating the entire home as a system rather than a set of disconnected components. With reference to the challenges laid out by Markard et al, this approach would require: 1) coordination in the diffusion of innovations within households (insulation, heat pumps, microgeneration); 2) search for synergies between heat, power and transport systems; 3) Active phase-out of technologies such as gas/oil boilers and associated industries; 4) Major increase in consumer engagement and changed social practices in net zero homes; 5) Coordinated and adaptive governance across scales. For those involved in whole house retrofit, this would represent a step-change in the way that actors frame, approach and deliver retrofit interventions. In particular, operationalising the theory of acceleration implies the creation of sustained funding streams, the development of supply chains and adequately skilled workforces, quality control of retrofits, and a shift in public engagement approaches. For local authorities, identified elsewhere as key actors in sustainability transitions, this will require reflexive learning around the systems, practices, and routines of retrofits. The research will aim to: a) Advance theory on sustainability transitions acceleration through examination of the case of whole-house retrofit.b) Deliver practical empirical insights on how acceleration of transitions is enabled or constrained. c) Create meaningful impact through collaboration with key stakeholders engaged in whole-house retrofit governance