Extreme sea-level change and strategic infrastructure adaptation pathways

根据测量的工业时代和预测的全球海平面长期上升，英国迅速需要优先考虑其未来战略性沿海基础设施的适应和规划，以确保其长期弹性。例如，在沿海地区，能够实现我们的低碳目标的关键可再生基础设施在哪里，以及它对未来极端海平面的适应能力如何？该项目旨在推进新的跨学科方法（气候科学;地理空间分析;工程决策），以研究最近发布的气候变化和海平面上升预测（UKCP 18; IPCC AR 6）对英国关键沿海基础设施长期规划的危害和社会经济影响。它与EPSRC研究领域保持一致：海岸和航道工程;基础设施和城市系统;运筹学。目标：与专家参与，确定一套极端的海平面情景为英国低分辨率，高影响分析。收集数字数据集并整合到一个功能框架中，以包括基础设施网络;高程模型;未来海平面情景;风险评估框架和气候服务，在各种空间和时间尺度上。缩小空间分析沿海和河口关键基础设施的未来脆弱性和暴露于案例研究区域（CSR）的海平面上升估计企业社会责任中极端情景的直接和间接影响，并确定企业社会责任中的适应阈值和备选办法。为长期战略规划制定适应性路径，并调查该方法在国家一级的可扩展性。潜在应用和效益：提高对英国沿海战略基础设施脆弱性、暴露和风险的认识;提高对海平面上升适应性反应的优先次序;改进沿海基础设施的长期规划;改进复杂模型输出、不确定性和适应性规划方法的数据传播;改进所有者/运营商、利益相关者、社区、监管机构和政府之间的合作与协调。

In the light of the measured industrial-age and predicted long-term rise in global sea levels, the UK rapidly needs ways to prioritise its future strategic coastal infrastructure adaption and planning to ensure their long-term resilience. For example, where is critical renewable infrastructure at the coast that will deliver our low carbon targets, and how resilient is it to future extreme sea-levels? This project aims to advance novel cross-disciplinary approaches (climate science; geo-spatial analysis; engineering decision making) to examine the hazards and socio-economic impacts of recently published climate change and sea-level-rise projections (UKCP18; IPCC AR6) on long term planning of critical coastal infrastructure in the UK. It aligns with EPSRC research areas: Coastal and waterway engineering; Infrastructure and urban systems; Operational Research.Objectives:With expert engagement, determine a set of extreme sea-level scenarios for the UK for low resolution, high impact analysis. Collect the digital datasets and integrate into a functional framework to include infrastructure networks; elevation models; future sea level scenarios; risk assessment frameworks and climate services, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.Downscale the spatial analysis coastal & estuarine critical infrastructure's future vulnerability and exposure to rising sea levels in case study regions (CSRs)Estimate the direct and indirect impacts of extreme scenarios in CSRs, and establish thresholds and options for adaptation within CSRs. Develop adaptive pathways for long-term strategic planning and investigate the scalability of the approach to national levels. Potential applications and benefits:Improved understanding of vulnerability, exposure and risk of UK coastal strategic infrastructure.Improved of prioritisation of adaption responses to sea level rise.Improved long term planning of/for coastal infrastructure.Improved data dissemination of complex model outputs, uncertainties and adaptive planning approaches.Improved co-operation and coordination between owners/operators, stakeholders, communities, regulatory bodies and government.