The future of private car ownership: who is breaking up with their car and why?

对汽车依赖心理的研究表明，旅行习惯很难改变。即使人们表示希望少开车--例如出于环境考虑--他们也很难改变自己的行为。许多人感觉，或者确实是，通过社会，经济，建筑环境和结构因素的复杂系统锁定在汽车所有权系统中。然而，在这个系统中有微弱的变化信号，一些人自愿选择不拥有汽车，或者从多车家庭中“摆脱”一辆或多辆汽车。如果这些行为通过政策奖励和抑制措施得到支持和放大，那么可能会出现一个转折点，从私人汽车所有权转向可持续的低碳交通系统，在这种系统中，主动、公共和共享的出行形式是大多数城市居民的常态。我的假设是，这个远离私家车所有权的临界点可以通过政策工具（棍棒和胡萝卜）来实现，以扩大与自愿非汽车所有权有关的新兴行为和做法。我的博士研究的目的是产生与社会、经济和建筑环境因素相关的新知识，这些因素有利于向自愿非汽车拥有转变。目标是深入了解个人（微观）、地方区域（中观）和国家（宏观）层面上自愿不拥有汽车的态度和做法。这些见解将被用来开发和测试一系列的情景，为未来的私家车所有权。我的研究将包括四个独立的研究，每一个贡献新的知识的总体研究问题。研究1（2022年12月至2023年7月）将对与自愿非汽车所有权相关的现有研究文献进行系统的跨学科审查。研究2（2023年4月至2023年9月）将研究政策主导的行动（英国和国际），以限制汽车拥有量。这将涉及通过一系列关键利益攸关方访谈，审查二手数据和主要定性数据的收集情况。研究3（2023年10月至2024年10月）将基于研究1和2的见解，通过对英国二级数据（人口普查，全国旅行调查，家庭纵向研究，ONS/DfT来源）的定量分析，建立自愿非汽车所有权的图景。这将辅之以使用移动传记收集的主要定性数据，以了解个人放弃私家车所有权的动机。研究四（2024年10月至2025年7月）将利用这三项研究的见解，制定未来私家车拥有量的叙述性情景，并就交通政策和行动的影响得出结论。这些产出将与参与研究2的主要利益攸关方一起进行测试。开发的新知识可用于为地方和国家政府建立证据基础，以加强政策干预，减少城市地区私家车的使用和拥有。这反过来又会导致更低的碳排放，更好的空气质量和更有利于积极旅行和社交互动的公共场所。社区团体/活动家同样可以利用研究结果开展运动，并在当地进行创新，以改善公共交通，共享流动性以及步行和骑自行车设施，以减少对汽车的依赖。

The research into the psychology of car dependency shows that travel habits are hard to change. Even when people state a desire to drive less - for example because of environmental concerns - they find it hard to change their behaviour. Many people feel, or indeed are, locked-in to system of a car ownership through a complex system of social, economic, built environment and structural factors. However, there are weak signals of change in this system with some individuals voluntarily choosing to not own a car, or to "shed" one or more cars from a multi-car household. If these behaviours are supported and amplified through policy rewards and disincentives, there could be a tipping point away from private car ownership towards a sustainable, low-carbon mobility system where active, public and shared forms of travel are the norm for the majority of urban dwellers. My hypothesis is that this tipping point away from private car ownership could be achieved with policy instruments (sticks and carrots) to amplify emerging behaviours and practices relating to voluntary non-car ownership. The aim of my PhD research is to generate new knowledge relating to the social, economic and built environment factors that favour a shift towards voluntary non-car ownership. The objectives are to gain insights into voluntary non-car ownership attitudes and practices at an individual (micro), local-regional (meso) and national (macro) level. These insights will be used to develop and test a range of scenarios for the future of private car ownership.My research will comprise four separate studies which each contribute new knowledge to the overarching research question. Study 1 (Dec 2022- July 2023) will be a systematic, transdisciplinary review of the existing research literature relating to voluntary non-car ownership. Study 2 (April 2023 - September 2023) will research policy-led action (UK and international) to constrain car ownership. This will involve a review of secondary data and primary qualitative data collection through a series of key stakeholder interviews. Study 3 (October 2023 - October 2024) will build on insights from Studies 1 and 2 to build a picture of voluntary non-car ownership through quantitative analysis of secondary UK data (census, National Travel Survey, Household Longitudinal Study, ONS/DfT sources). This will be complemented by primary qualitative data collection using mobility biographies to understand the motivation of individuals relinquishing private car ownership. The insights from the three studies will be used for Study 4 (October 2024 - July 2025) to develop future narrative scenarios for private car ownership and draw conclusions on the implications for transport policy and action. These outputs will be tested with the key stakeholders engaged in Study 2.The new knowledge developed could be used to build the evidence base for local and national governments to strengthen policy interventions to reduce private car use and ownership in urban areas. This in turn would lead to lower carbon emissions, better air quality and public places more conducive to active travel and social interaction. The research findings could equally be used by community groups/activists to campaign, and innovate locally, for improved public transport, shared mobility and walking and cycling facilities to reduce car dependency.