Measurement Timing in Growth Mixture Modeling of Alcohol Trajectories

描述(由申请人提供)： 摘要：青春期和青年时期饮酒仍然是一个关键的研究领域，这一点得到了国家酒精滥用和酒精中毒研究所(NIAAA)的未成年人饮酒研究倡议和国家酒精滥用和酒精中毒问题咨询委员会特别工作组(2002年)的充分认可。鉴于酒精对个人和社会的生物、社会和环境影响，酒精的使用及其负面后果是一个重大的公共卫生问题。重要的是要更好地了解个体在这一关键发育时期表现出的酒精使用的变化模式(例如，酒精使用量持续较低，酒精使用量迅速增加)。生长混合模型(GMM)是一种统计技术，用于识别随着时间的推移表现出不同酒精使用模式的潜在亚组个体。尽管GMM被广泛使用，但有限数量的研究检查了研究设计因素如何影响用于识别GMM中潜在亚群的酒精使用轨迹。建议的研究特别侧重于纵向研究中测量时机(即评估的数量和间隔)的影响。在GMM的背景下，关于如何安排评估空间的决策尤其具有挑战性，因为假设的潜在亚组可能会根据设计特征而不是实际变化，随着时间的推移表现出不同的酒精使用趋势。该项目建议在GMM的背景下调查测量时间如何影响个人酒精使用轨迹的形状。具体目的是：(1)进行蒙特卡罗模拟研究，评估评估的次数和间隔如何影响用于确定GMM潜在酒精使用亚组的酒精使用轨迹；(2)利用1997年全国青年纵向调查的酒精数据，提供GMM的应用，展示评估的次数和间隔对用于确定潜在亚组的酒精使用轨迹的影响程度；以及(3)将研究结果传达给定量和应用研究人员，并为设计纵向GMM研究提出具体考虑。这项拟议的研究的主要含义是帮助应用研究人员设计GMM研究，充分衡量个人随着时间的推移表现出的酒精使用模式。然后，研究人员可能会对潜在的类别轨迹的病因预测因素和远端结果进行更细粒度的检查。这些和随后的发现也可能有助于根据有关特定酒精使用轨迹的预测因素的信息，为预防或干预计划识别个人。 公共卫生相关性： 项目简介：这项拟议的研究旨在增强我们对如何最好地衡量个人在青春期和成年期的酒精使用模式的知识，青春期和成年期是酒精相关行为发展的关键时期。正如卫生局局长的报告(美国卫生与公众服务部，2007年)指出的那样，了解个人随时间的酒精使用模式非常重要，因为这种了解对于为表现出特定酒精使用模式的个人量身定做预防和干预计划具有重要意义。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Abstract: Alcohol use during adolescence and young adulthood remains a critical area for research, which is well-recognized by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism's (NIAAA) Underage Drinking Research Initiative and the report from the Task Force of the National Advisory Council on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (2002). Alcohol use and its negative consequences are a significant public health concern given the biological, social, and environmental effects they exert on individuals and society. It is important to better understand the variable patterns of alcohol use that individuals exhibit over time (e.g., consistently low alcohol use, rapidly increasing alcohol use) during this key developmental period. Growth mixture modeling (GMM) is a statistical technique that is used to identify latent subgroups of individuals who exhibit distinct patterns of alcohol use over time. Despite the widespread use of GMM, a limited number of studies have examined how study design factors may affect alcohol use trajectories used to identify latent subgroups in GMM. The proposed research focuses specifically on the effect of measurement timing (i.e., number and spacing of assessments) in longitudinal studies. Decision-making about how to space assessments is particularly challenging in the context of GMM, because the hypothesized latent subgroups may exhibit different trends in alcohol use over time based on design features rather than actual changes. This project proposes to investigate how measurement timing affects the shape of individuals' alcohol use trajectories in the context of GMM. The specific aims are to: (1) conduct a Monte Carlo simulation study that evaluates how the number and spacing of assessments affects the alcohol use trajectories used to identify latent alcohol use subgroups in GMM; (2) provide an application of GMM using alcohol data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 that demonstrates the extent to which the number and spacing of assessments affects the alcohol use trajectories used to identify the latent subgroups; and (3) communicate the findings to both quantitative and applied researchers and suggest specific considerations for designing longitudinal GMM studies. The main implication of the proposed research is to aid applied researchers in designing GMM studies that adequately measure the patterns of alcohol use that individuals exhibit over time. Researchers may then conduct more fine-grained examinations of etiological predictors of and distal outcomes associated with the latent class trajectories. These and subsequent findings may also facilitate identification of individuals for prevention or intervention programs based on information about the predictors of particular alcohol use trajectories. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Project Narrative: The proposed research seeks to enhance our knowledge of how to best measure individuals' patterns of alcohol use during adolescence and young adulthood, which is a key period for the development of alcohol- related behaviors. As indicated in the Surgeon General's report (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2007), it is important to understand individuals' patterns of alcohol use over time given the implications such understanding has for tailoring prevention and intervention programs to individuals who exhibit particular patterns of alcohol use.