SURVEILLANCE OF LUNG CANCER TRENDS IN THE US WITH MISCAN

描述（由申请人提供）： 这项拟议的研究是一个项目的延续，该项目旨在开发一个肺癌人口趋势的综合模型。该模型提供了癌症控制干预措施对观察到的发病率和/或死亡率趋势的影响的估计值;推荐的干预措施对预期人口影响的程度的合理估计范围;新干预措施对未来国家肺癌趋势的潜在影响;以及有针对性的癌症控制干预措施对人口结局的影响。 目前的项目模型是微观模拟筛选分析（MISCAN）模拟模型，其中包括多阶段致癌的Moolgavkar模型的适应。Moolgavkar模型将暴露于风险因素与肺癌风险联系起来。拟议的项目将扩大我们的建模工作，明确包括从吸烟相关的干预措施，预期水平的暴露于烟草烟雾的步骤。在完成模型开发和验证后，该项目将对所有可能的干预措施进行评估，包括与吸烟和饮食相关的行为风险因素，早期检测策略和各种治疗方式。相对于CISNET方案的现有努力，拟议的项目将强调评估干预措施和人口趋势的全面性;不同建模方法的整合;以及在模型之间进行有意义的比较。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed study is a continuation of a project to develop a comprehensive model of population trends in lung cancer. The model delivers estimates of the impact of cancer control interventions on observed trends in incidence and/or mortality; plausible ranges of estimates for the extent to which recommended interventions are having their expected population impact; the potential impact of new interventions on future national lung cancer trends; and the impact of targeted cancer control interventions on population outcome. The current project model is an adaptation of the Micro-simulation Screening ANalysis (MISCAN) simulation model that includes the Moolgavkar model on multistage carcinogenesis. The Moolgavkar model links exposure to risk factors to risk of lung cancer over time. The proposed project will extend our modeling effort to include explicitly the step from smoking-related interventions to expected level of exposure lo tobacco smoke. With this extension and after finishing the model development and validation, the project will perform evaluations across the full spectrum of possible interventions, including behavioral risk factors related to smoking and diet, early detection strategies, and various treatment modalities. Relative to existing efforts in the CISNET program, the proposed project will emphasize comprehensiveness of evaluated interventions and population trends; integration of different modeling approaches; and developing meaningful comparisons among models.