Building a modelling framework to aid the identification and management of key conservation areas for UK seabirds

作为保护现有生物多样性热点的一种手段，保护区正受到越来越多的关注。然而，保护区的规划很少考虑到未来气候变化的影响，往往忽视考虑附近土地使用变化的影响。此外，保护区和其他保护行动往往孤立地考虑海洋和陆地领域，可能会错过领域之间的重要相互作用，这可能会对多领域生态系统（如海岸）产生重大影响。海鸟受到来自海洋和陆地的威胁，并受到人类压力的巨大压力。因此，该项目将使用海鸟在英国作为一个案例研究，以帮助保护规划，开发一个模型，整合气候和土地/海洋使用的驱动程序从海洋和陆地领域，以确定保护的优先领域。首先，将使用一个物种分布模型来确定海鸟的主要沿海特征和当前的优先领域。然后，将利用气候和土地使用预测来确定沿海地区何时何地可能改变其对海鸟的适宜性。最后，将进行一次审查，以确定哪些行动在维持主要沿海地区的养护潜力方面最为有效。

Protected areas are receiving increasing attention as a means to preserve existing biodiversity hotspots. However, planning of protected areas rarely accounts for the effects of future climate change, and often neglects to consider the impacts of nearby land-use change. In addition, protected areas and other conservation actions tend to consider the marine and terrestrial realms in isolation, and can miss crucial interactions between realms, which may have significant impacts on multi-realm ecosystems, such as coasts. Seabirds are exposed to threats from both the marine and terrestrial realms and are under significant pressure from anthropogenic stressors. Therefore, this project will use seabirds in the UK as a case study to aid in conservation planning by developing a model which integrates climate and land/sea use drivers from both the marine and terrestrial realms to identify conservation priority areas. Firstly, a species distribution model will be used to identify key coastal characteristics for seabirds, and current priority areas. Then, climate and land-use projections will be used to identify when and where coastal areas are likely to change their suitability for seabirds. Finally, a review will be conducted to identify which actions will be most effective in maintaining conservation potential of key coastal areas.