Understanding and predicting the consequences of pollinator and predatory insect declines for global agriculture

据报道，由于土地利用和气候条件的变化，昆虫在世界范围内迅速减少。与此同时，昆虫提供了许多有益于农业的重要服务，包括授粉和控制作物害虫。然而，我们仍然不完全了解土地利用和气候变化是如何导致全球昆虫数量下降的，因此，昆虫生物多样性在哪里受到最大的威胁。该项目将研究土地利用和气候变化如何驱动传粉媒介和害虫捕食者生物多样性的变化，方法是整理一个传粉和害虫控制物种特征的全球数据库，并将其与关于生物多样性沿气候和土地利用梯度分布的全球丰度数据相结合。此外，该项目还将确定传粉媒介和害虫控制者多样性下降最明显的地区与农业重要地区重叠的地方，以及世界上哪些地区由于生态系统服务退化而面临粮食短缺的风险。这一评估既将在当前进行，也将根据气候和土地利用变化的RCP情景对未来进行模拟。

Insects are reported to be in rapid decline worldwide, driven principally by changes in land use and climatic conditions. At the same time, insects provide many important services that benefit agriculture, including pollination and control of crop pests. We still have an incomplete understanding of how changes in land use and climate drive insect declines worldwide, however, and consequently where insect biodiversity is most at risk. This project will investigate how changes in land use and climate drive changes in the biodiversity of pollinators and pest-predators by collating a global database on the identity of pollinating and pest-controlling species to be used in concert with global abundance data on the distribution of biodiversity along both climate and land-use gradients. The project will, furthermore, identify where the most pronounced declines in the diversity of pollinators and pest-controllers overlap with agriculturally important areas, and which regions of the world are thus at risk of food shortages due to degradation in ecosystem services. This assessment will be made both at the current time as well as modelled into the future with respect to RCP scenarios of climate and land-use change.