Predicting species distributions for biodiversity renewal decisions. (Ref:4444)

我们正处于生物多样性危机之中，生态学家面临的挑战是制定有效的保护策略。应该在哪里建立新的栖息地？如何管理这些栖息地？生态学家通常使用生境适宜性模型来预测物种对土地利用变化的反应，但物种的发生不仅受到该地点生境适宜性的影响，还受到生境空间配置的影响。物种更有可能在更大、更好、联系更紧密的栖息地生存。由于这个原因，元种群模型经常被用来评估区域持久性是如何通过当地灭绝和周围栖息地的殖民化之间的平衡来维持的。然而，这样的模型需要大量的数据：在做出预测之前，必须先核实每一块栖息地中种群的存在与否。此外，它们不太能够解释栖息地质量的持续增量变化（积极或消极）。尽管这两种方法有明显的优缺点，但它们尚未统一为一个框架。该项目招收的博士生将在位于康沃尔郡的埃克塞特大学彭林校区注册。他/她将与项目团队密切合作，并作为一个充满活力的研究人员和保护实践者社区的一部分，完成一个由nerc资助的大型项目：“通过人与自然的方法恢复生物多样性（RENEW）”。他/她将(1)与项目团队合作，开发模型方法来预测物种对栖息地创造和恢复的反应，(2)通过收集英格兰西南部林地鸟类物种减少的实地数据来严格测试模型，包括小斑点啄木鸟（Dendrocopos minor）和柳树山雀（Poecile montanus）。然后，通过与一系列土地管理者和保护利益相关者（农民、RSPB、自然英格兰和野生动物信托基金会）密切合作，并在七国集团遗产项目的主持下，他/她将使用这些模型来指导有针对性的生物多样性更新行动。七国集团遗产项目是一个雄心勃勃的自然恢复项目，旨在为康沃尔的自然、气候和人民提供持久的遗产。它将为包括林地鸟类在内的主要物种恢复土地和栖息地。该地区是英国广泛的自然恢复网络的一部分，这是一个政府在其25年环境计划中承诺创建的野生动物丰富地区的国家网络。

We are in a biodiversity crisis and a challenge for ecologists is to devise strategies for targeting conservation effort effectively. Where should new habitats be created, and how should they be managed? Typically, ecologists have used habitat suitability models to predict how species respond to changes in land-use, but species occurrence is affected not only by the suitability of habitat at that location, but also by the spatial configuration habitats. Species are more likely to survive in bigger, better and more connected habitats. For this reason, meta-population models are often used to assess how regional persistence is maintained by a balance between local extinctions and colonisations from surrounding habitats. However such models are data hungry: one must verify the presence or absence of populations in every patch of habitat before predictions can be easily made. Moreover, they are less able to account for ongoing incremental changes (positive or negative) in habitat quality. Despite the evident strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches, they have yet to be unified into a single framework.The PhD student recruited in this project will be registered and based at the University of Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall. S/he will working closely with the project team and as part of a vibrant community of researchers and conservation practitioners delivering a large NERC-funded project: "Renewing biodiversity through a people-in-nature approach (RENEW)". S/he will (1) work with the project team to develop modelling approaches for predicting how species respond to habitat creation and restoration, (2) test the model rigorously by collecting field data on declining woodland bird species in south-west England, including Lesser Spotted Woodpecker (Dendrocopos minor) and Willow Tit (Poecile montanus). Then, by working closely with a range of land-managers and conservation stakeholders (farmers, RSPB, Natural England and The Wildlife Trusts) and under the auspices of the G7 Legacy Project, s/he will use the models to guide targeted biodiversity renewal actions. The G7 Legacy Project is an ambitious nature recovery project, aiming to deliver a lasting legacy for nature, climate and the people of Cornwall. It will restore land and habitats for key species including woodland birds. The area forms part of an England wide nature recovery network - a national network of wildlife-rich places that the government has committed to creating in its 25 Year Environment Plan.